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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX (BRO)

FXUS64 KBRO 141733 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1233 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Mid-level high pressure over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico will keep conditions mostly hot and dry, however, a slight
uptick in moisture along the coast may allow for a few showers to
move inland into the Lower Valley this afternoon and evening. 
Otherwise, gusty winds will subside late in the evening with 
mostly clear skies. VFR conditions should prevail with a brief 
patch of low ceilings possible around sunrise.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 541 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Very few changes made to the previous issuance of
TAFs. VFR will prevail today as surface winds rapidly increase to
breezy levels. Tonight, VFR should persist as winds diminish and 
a few clouds hang around. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 430 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018/ 

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): 500 mb high pressure will be 
centered over the coastlines of Louisiana and east Texas and 
extended over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the 
forecast period. This synoptic pattern will produce dry weather 
across the inland portions of the BRO CWFA with only isolated 
showers over the adjacent coastal waters. Meanwhile, high pressure 
over the Gulf of Mexico will interact with thermal low pressure 
within inland Mexico, producing a breezy to windy onshore flow and 
exacerbating well above normal daytime high and overnight low 

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday): 500 mb ridging will
be strengthening over the RGV and the TX coastline around midweek
and will hold in place through Thurs and Thurs Night maintaining 
stable conditions over the region. The ridge axis will then start
retreating west allowing for overall weakness in the 500 mb
pattern to form up along the TX coastline. Meanwhile, a strong 500
mb short wave will dig southeast over the central portion of the
country pushing into the mid Miss River Valley. This will help
maintain the overall weakness in the 500 mb pattern over TX and
the western Gulf of Mex through the weekend and next Mon. The
deeper layer moisture levels will remain pretty limited through
next Mon despite the breakdown of the ridge axis over the region.
Some sea breeze effects and daytime heating could fire some isold
conv later this week into the weekend. But do not see any reason
to boost up the pops into chc category at this time. 

The breakdown in the 500 mb ridging may allow for the afternoon
high temps to drop down a few degrees. However, daytime heating
will not likely be limited too much by the persistent sunshine. So
will go close to the slightly warmer ECMWF high temps. 

MARINE (Now through Wednesday): Buoy 42019 reported winds around 18 
knots gusting to around 19 knots with seas of 3 feet with a period 
of 6 seconds at 03 CDT/08 UTC. Broad high pressure over the Gulf of 
Mexico will continue to interact more intensely with thermal low 
pressure over inland Mexico during the forecast period. Breezy winds 
and moderate seas are anticipated along the Lower Texas Coast, with 
Small Craft Exercise Caution likely for at least portions of the 
coastal waters today through Wednesday.

Wednesday Night through Saturday Night: Surface ridging extending
west from the Atlantic Ocean across the Gulf of Mex will maintain
light to moderate SE low level winds across the lower TX Bay and
Gulf waters into the weekend. Do not expect the wind strength to
reach into SCA criteria for either the Bay or Gulf waters through




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