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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX (BRO)

FXUS64 KBRO 261726 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1226 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...VFR TAFs will continue for the remainder of today and
into tonight. Very brief MVFR ceilings may develop near dawn or 
just after dawn Sunday morning, but guidance is just barely 
hinting at it. Thus, although a few low clouds are in the TAFs, no
mention will be made of any ceilings for now. Upstream ridging 
aloft remains in place over west Texas and will shift slowly east
toward central Texas through the next day or so, further 
solidifying local stability. High pressure will remain in control
at the surface, with light to moderate southeast to south winds. 
Skies will be mostly clear otherwise, with no significant aviation


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 550 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Very few changes were made to the previous issuance of
TAFs. VFR will prevail today with few to scattered clouds and
surface winds that will increase and back as the seabreeze front 
transitions across the region from east to west. VFR should also 
be on tap for tonight. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018/ 

SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): Deep South Texas and the Rio 
Grande Valley is expected to remain sandwiched between amplifying 
500 mb high pressure over western Mexico and the Lone Star State, 
and strengthening closed 500 mb low pressure over the eastern Gulf 
of Mexico. The resultant mid-level flow out of the northwest to 
north will produce dry weather across the BRO CWFA during the 
forecast period. Organizing Subtropical Storm Alberto, moving in 
tandem with the aforementioned closed 500 mb low, will help to 
produce well above normal temperatures, with record highs possible 
today and tomorrow, especially at HRL and MFE. 

LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday):
Massive and oppressive midlevel ridge will dominate the weather
for the long term, with nary a chance of rain in sight. Subsidence
with the ridge will keep temperatures soaring above 100 for most
areas through the next week. 

Now through Sunday: Buoy 42020 reported south-southeast winds 
around 12 knots gusting to around 14 knots with seas slightly 
under 2.5 feet with a period of 7 seconds at 250 CDT/750 UTC. 
Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas continue to be 
expected along the Lower Texas Coast due to a weak pressure 
gradient that will persist over the western Gulf of Mexico. 
Slowly-organizing Subtropical Storm Alberto will move in the 
general direction of the panhandle of Florida and remain no threat
to the Lower Texas Coast.

Monday through Wednesday: Surface high pressure remains in control
along the northwest Gulf, keeping winds light. Light winds will
keep wave heights low, generally 3 feet or less through the
upcoming week.




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