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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX (BRO)

FXUS64 KBRO 132328 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
628 PM CDT Mon Aug 13 2018

...00z Aviation Update...

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through the period. The
primary story will be strong gusty winds this evening and then
again during the day Tuesday as southerly flow picks up during 
peak heating hours. There may be a few clouds develop along the
sea breeze on Tuesday, however, conditions are expected to remain
largely dry. 


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CDT Mon Aug 13 2018/ 

SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday night): 500 mb high pressure over 
the western Gulf of Mexico will continue to bring mainly hot and dry 
conditions to Deep South Texas through the first half of the week. 
Current observations this afternoon show a shallow cu field with 
breezy southeast winds of up to 30 mph. This will continue through 
sunset with a few patches of low clouds possible after midnight. 
Going into Tuesday and Tuesday night, high pressure begins to break 
down as a shortwave trough digs into the Central United States. An 
uptick in moisture off the Gulf will also move into the lower Texas 
coastal areas. A few isolated showers or thunderstorms will be 
possible along the coastal counties and marine areas, otherwise, 
conditions will remain dry.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): Hot and generally dry 
conditions continue into late this week as high pressure dominates
Deep South Texas. A weak mid level inverted trough of low 
pressure works westward toward the east coast of Mexico Friday 
into Saturday with slightly increased low level moisture along the
Gulf coast. This may be just enough for isolated seabreeze 
convection to form in mainly coastal counties during the late 
morning and early afternoon hours this weekend into next week. 
High temperatures will consistently top 100 degrees in central and
western areas, including the mid and upper Rio Grande Valley. 
Heat indices are expected to range from 105-109 degrees through 
the period. 

MARINE (Now through Tuesday night): Moderate to occasionally 
strong southeast winds will continue across the coastal waters 
this afternoon with winds reaching to just under 20 knots at 
times. Winds will diminish slightly on Tuesday, but small craft 
may need to exercise caution still. Seas across the Gulf waters 
will remain at 3 to 6 feet.

Wednesday through Saturday Night: Conditions will slowly improve
Wednesday into Thursday as breezy winds continue to diminish and 
high pressure builds across the region. Moderate seas of generally
2 to 4 feet are expected into the weekend on the Gulf of Mexico. 
A moderate chop will persist on the Laguna Madre, especially 
during afternoon and evening hours. 




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