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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX (BRO)

                            
000
FXUS64 KBRO 161747 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1247 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Morning wave of shower activity continues to move east
away from the region, with midlevel OVC continuing through the
rest of the day. Light rain and drizzle is still a possibility,
but will not increase until later tonight when cigs begin to
decrease. Winds remain lighter form the north through the next 24
hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 644 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Isolated patches of heavy showers are developing 
north of the three major aerodromes but are rapidly moving east 
over the Gulf of Mexico. Model guidance suggests that light 
precipitation will affect BRO/HRL/MFE beginning around midday 
today. Although VFR is prevailing right now, lower cloud decks are
anticipated with the onset of the light rain and drizzle today. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 428 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019/ 

SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): A Coastal Flood Advisory, High 
Surf Advisory, and High Risk of rip currents inherited from the 
previous shift will be retained for this forecast cycle, as large 
swells continue to affect the local beaches per local buoy 
observations. Both Advisories and the High Risk may need to be 
extended into tonight and through tomorrow if the large swells 
persist, which it appears they will based on model guidance. 

Meanwhile, an overrunning precipitation situation will continue 
across the BRO CWFA during the short term forecast period, with 
isolated to scattered patches of light rain and drizzle expected. 
Abundant cloud cover in addition to the rainfall threat will lead 
to well below normal temperatures for this time of year. 

LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday): Unsettled weather
conditions are expected to prevail through Tuesday. The coastal 
trough will keep skies cloudy and light rain chances in the 
forecast Sunday night into Tuesday. A mid level ridge will move 
overhead Tuesday night through Thursday as surface high pressure 
builds across the northern Gulf Coast. Rain chances will begin 
to decrease as the coastal trough weakens and surface winds become
southeast. However, lingering rain chances will continue, through
the rest of the period, especially across the western portions of
the area. Below normal temperatures are expected Sunday night 
through Tuesday due to the overrunning conditions. Temperatures 
will start to recover by midweek with high temperatures on 
Wednesday reaching the low to mid 70s. Southeast winds will 
increase on Thursday into Friday as the next storm system moves 
into Four Corners and the Central Plains.

MARINE (Now through Sunday): Buoy 42020 reported north-northeast 
winds around 16 knots gusting to around 19 knots with seas slightly 
over 6.5 feet with a period of 8 seconds at 350 CDT/850 UTC. An 
enhanced pressure gradient over the western Gulf of Mexico will 
continue to produce adverse marine conditions for a portion of the 
lower Texas coastal waters during the forecast period. A Small Craft 
Advisory is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico waters from 0 to 60 
nautical miles offshore until around sunset today, with an 
additional Advisory possible for the same area tonight and Sunday.

Sunday through Wednesday night: Moderate northeast winds will continue
along the lower Texas coast through Tuesday. Winds will gradually
become easterly Tuesday night into Wednesday as high pressure
builds into the northwest Gulf. Wave heights on the Gulf will 
remain elevated. Periodic exercise caution conditions or low end 
advisory conditions will be likely through Wednesday. Marine
conditions begin to improve Wednesday night as high pressure
settles across the upper Texas coast. 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ256-257-
     351.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ256-257-
     351.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ256-
     257-351.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

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