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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX (BRO)

FXUS64 KBRO 191138 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
638 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

.AVIATION...Light rain and showers are approaching the aerodromes
from both the east and west. A TEMPO has been included for the
morning hours to account for this precipitation. Veering surface
winds will occur due to the westward progression of a surface
trough of low pressure. Another TEMPO is in effect for the hours
of the afternoon as this trough moves west. Precipitation is
forecast to become more widespread for tonight. Overall, VFR is
anticipated through the next 24 hours. 

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 418 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019/ 

SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday night): The westward progression
of an inverted surface trough will produce isolated to scattered 
patches of showers and rain that will transition from the lower 
Texas coastal waters to the inland areas today and tonight. On 
Wednesday, a deep and moist easterly flow will continue the chance
for scattered precipitation. Temperature-wise, moderating, but 
still below normal, temperatures are anticipated due to 
significant cloud cover and the persistent opportunity for 

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): A fairly progressive 
upper-level ridge will move through the Central U.S. to start off
the long term period. This will generally bring drier and warmer 
weather to Deep South Texas. Onshore flow and sufficient low-level
moisture will allow for orographic lifting west of the CWA into 
the Sierra Madre with 20 to 30% PoP along the border and out west.
Surface high pressure will build across East Texas and progress 
into the Southeast U.S., finally backing winds to the southeast 
again. The next deep trough will move into the Four Corners Region
by the end of the week, with a few weak shortwaves rotating 
through the Southern Plains, bringing a chance of thunderstorms to
the region. Though thunder probabilities are low, the better 
chances will be Friday afternoon into early Saturday, before the 
trough axis and better energy lift northeastward. Going into early
next week, strong subsidence filters in with dry, northwesterly 
flow in the mid-levels. The GFS and ECMWF both bring a cold front 
through late Monday, with little to no precipitation. Temperatures
look to rise above normal, with highs in the upper 80s to low 

MARINE (Now through Wednesday night): Buoy 42020 reported east-
northeast winds around 14 knots gusting to around 19 knots with 
seas slightly under 6 feet with a period of 7 seconds at 250 
CDT/750 UTC. A long fetch of breezy winds over the Gulf of Mexico 
will produce rough swells that will approach the Lower Texas Coast
during the forecast period. A Small Craft Advisory for Seas is in
effect for the Gulf of Mexico from 0 to 60 nautical miles 
offshore from around sunrise today until around sunrise Wednesday 
due to these swells. Marine conditions may improve slightly on 
Wednesday, but Small Craft Advisory for Seas or Small Craft 
Exercise Caution are likely to be needed. 

Thursday through Tuesday: Surface high pressure will move off to
the Southeast U.S., shifting winds back to the southeast in the
Western Gulf of Mexico. Periodic small craft exercise caution
conditions will be possible this weekend with seas ranging from 3
to 5 feet. The next front may move into the region Monday or
Tuesday, increasing winds out of the north.

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for TXZ256-257-

GM...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 7 AM CDT Wednesday 
     for GMZ150-155-170-175.


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