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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX (BRO)

                            
000
FXUS64 KBRO 191141 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
641 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...High pressure to settle overhead today moving east
later tonight and Saturday. Dry atmosphere will maintain clear
skies and VFR conditions the next 24 hours. Light and variable
this morning become northwest to north at light to moderate speeds
with a few gusts approaching 20 knots. Winds turn east to
southeast tonight and southeast Saturday. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019/ 

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): With the exit of 
yesterday's mid level low pressure trough the 500mb mid level 
ridge steadily builds into Texas settling over South Texas 
Saturday. Surface and mid-layers continue to dry out as the ridge 
builds east providing a light to moderate northwest to north flow.
Dew points bottom out today and humidity levels will be the 
lowest of the week. Winds will be much lighter with a few gusts 
near 20 mph so not expecting any fire weather issues. Temperatures
will be pleasant starting off this morning in the 50s to lower 
60s warming up under a full April sun well into the 80s. As 
mentioned, ridging will be right over head Saturday with the 
surface high steadily moving east over the Gulf Saturday. Fair 
weather continues with another morning in the 50s to near 60 and a
fine afternoon in store with highs climbing to seasonal normals 
mid 80s under a continued clear sky. Southeast winds begin their 
return as the surface ridge moves east with winds steadily 
increasing becoming breezy along the I 69E/C corridors. The winds 
should not get to much out of hand with models suggesting the 
850-500 ridge still over the region and with winds in this layer 
remaining rather light.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday): Ridging aloft
continues Sunday and Monday, with the next trough diving southward
across the Four Corners Region. A wave embedded to the north will
induce surface low pressure formation in eastern Colorado. This
will tighten the gradient across Texas, leading to a breezy Easter
day for south Texas. As the western trough slowly drop
southeastward, Texas becomes more favorably located for shower 
and thunderstorm activity. This pattern is a favorable pattern 
for thunderstorm development on the mountains in Mexico, which 
then drift northeast into south Texas. These will be aided best on
Wednesday, as a front drops across Texas, providing a slightly 
better surface focus. What's left of the front may continue to aid
in thunderstorm possibility into Thursday, before the midlevel 
trough finally moves to the east of the region, returning the area
to drier northwesterly flow.

MARINE:
Now through Saturday: Surface and mid-level high pressure 
building over Deep South Texas today with the surface ridge 
spreading over the Western Gulf tonight drifting east Saturday. 
Light to moderate offshore flow and subsiding seas expected today 
with all advisories cancelled. Winds slowly turn back east to 
southeast tonight and south Saturday. Pressure gradient Saturday 
is expected to be localized and not that robust with mid-level 
ridge park over South Texas. Winds may increase enough to warrant 
exercise caution for the Laguna Madre Saturday afternoon. 

Sunday through Tuesday: Southeast flow dominates the forecast into
midweek, with high pressure to the east and low pressure
developing across eastern Colorado. Winds will be highest during
each day across the Laguna Madre. The brisk and consistent
southeast flow will bring higher swells to the Gulf waters, with
seas expected to reach 4 to 6 feet each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  82  61  83  67 /   0   0   0   0 
BROWNSVILLE          86  60  85  67 /   0   0   0   0 
HARLINGEN            87  58  86  65 /   0   0   0   0 
MCALLEN              88  60  88  67 /   0   0   0   0 
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  58  90  65 /   0   0   0   0 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   73  63  77  70 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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