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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX (BRO)

                            
000
FXUS64 KBRO 241730 AAC
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...18z Aviation Update...

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Been waiting for clouds to decrease to SCT and lift
above MVFR this morning, however, this has not happened as of yet.
Looking at satellite, low clouds/CU continues to develop and
spread northward across the region. Decided to keep things MVFR
through the afternoon with some subtle improvement at times later
on in the afternoon. Conditions will drop back to MVFR and
eventually IFR CIGs by early morning Sunday. LAMP guidance is
showing VIS issues early Sunday, however, with winds staying up
around 6-10 knots, think IFR or lower VIS is a bit too
pessimistic. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 854 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...

Made some slight changes to today's forecast. First, increased
temperatures a few degrees in most areas. Ridging aloft will build
in today, which should make temperatures slightly warmer than
yesterday, especially with more breaks in the cloud cover. 
Temperatures may even reach 90 in parts of Zapata and Starr 
Counties. Secondly, increased winds this afternoon, especially for
coastal counties. The grids and forecast products have been
updated. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019/ 

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): A zonal mid-level flow will 
persist over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the 
forecast period with some slight 500 mb ridging over the region 
emanating from neighboring Mexico. This pattern, and relatively low 
available atmospheric moisture, will produce dry weather for the BRO 
CWFA for the end of the weekend and the early part of the new week. 
With no cold front passages likely and a persistent, breezy onshore 
flow prevailing in addition to abundant sunshine, above normal 
daytime high and overnight low temperatures are also anticipated. 

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday): The secondary surge of
high pressure from the north pushes a weak front into the region
later Monday night into Tuesday morning. moisture and support
aloft are limited, so shower activity will be few and far between
as it passes. Through the remainder of the week, H5 ridging moves
across the US, with more tranquil conditions expected. As the sfc
high moves off to the east, winds in the region will turn back to
the southeast, with a gradual return of Gulf moisture and a slow
increase in daytime highs each afternoon. Longer range models show
a potent trough digging into the central US, with a more
substantial cold front dropping through Texas on Saturday. This
front may bring a more substantial rain possibility for the
weekend, but inconsistencies between models keeps confidence low
for now.

MARINE:
Now through Monday: Buoy 42020 reported south-southeast winds 
around 10 knots gusting to around 12 knots with seas slightly over
3.5 feet with a period of 6 seconds at 250 CDT/750 UTC. Light to 
moderate winds and low to moderate seas will affect the Lower 
Texas Coast under the influence of high pressure. Small Craft 
Advisory is not likely to be needed.

Tuesday through Friday: Winds will be from the northeast on 
Tuesday as a weak front slows down across the northwest Gulf. The 
front washes out Tuesday evening, allowing winds to shifts back 
from the southeast by Wednesday, which will continue through the 
rest of the week. Winds all days will not reach above 15 knots at
any point. This will keeps seas modest, with swells generally 2 
to 4 feet through the week.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Aviation Update...Frye-55