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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX (BRO)

                            
000
FXUS64 KBRO 182014
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
314 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

SHORT TERM (Now through Friday night):

Behind the front from this morning, a secondary surge of northwest
winds has begun to ramp up this afternoon, forcing the need for a
Wind Advisory across the far northwest CWA. With the sunset this 
evening, expect winds to diminish and stay light through the 
remainder of the short term, turning southeast by Friday night as 
high pressure moves east. Mid- level ridge begins to slide across 
the region with very dry air aloft, keeping mostly clear skies and
comfortable conditions in place. Overnight low temperatures will 
be below normal for mid April, bottoming out in the mid to upper 
50s both tonight and Friday night. High temperatures on Friday 
will rebound into the mid to upper 80s with low humidity and light
winds. A beautiful start to the holiday weekend. 

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday):

A pleasant, warm and rain free Easter weekend will be in store
across deep south Texas as upper level ridging settles over the
state from Saturday into Sunday before gradually sliding to the
east on Monday. Humidity, however, does gradually rise as winds
return and increase out of the southeast as the pressure gradient
tightens between a surface high moving over the central-eastern
Gulf of Mexico and low pressure over the higher terrain of 
Mexico, in addition, to a developing storm system over the central
plains. Winds are expected to become quite strong perhaps to Wind
Advisory conditions over portions of region, especially Sunday 
afternoon.

An upper level trough over the desert southwest late Monday into 
Tuesday will move atop of the state into Wednesday and Thursday. 
The influence of this trough and a cold front dropping southward 
across the state will act as the catalyst for convection across 
the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico along with central and 
southern portions of Texas. Elected to keep slight chance to 
chance pops in the forecast during the midweek period as west- 
southwest winds aloft and increased convergence out ahead of the 
front favor the potential for some rain and thunderstorm activity 
across deep south Texas. Best chances for rain and thunderstorms 
looks to be into Thursday as the cold front drops south into the 
area. Details will become clearer with progress into next week as 
mesoscale features along with the cold front become more defined.

Temperatures stay warm and humid with moderate southeast winds
ahead of the front. Winds diminish as the front moves into and 
across the region. Behind the front, winds will turn northerly 
but with only a slight improvement in the temperature and
humidity department in its wake.

&&

Marine (Now through Friday):

Strong northwesterly winds are expected across the coastal waters
by this evening, with Small Craft Advisories in place through 
tonight. Winds decrease late tonight, allowing seas to subside 
Friday through Friday night. Winds begin to shift southeasterly 
Friday night as high pressure moves east.

(Saturday through Thursday):

The pressure gradient begins to increase Saturday into Sunday as
the high continues to slide east while low pressure will develop
across the higher terrain of Mexico and over the central plains.
This will result in increasing southeasterly winds and hazardous
seas from Sunday into next week. Small Craft Advisory conditions
will likely develop Sunday and continue into midweek. The winds 
along wind seas will begin to subside late midweek as a cold 
front moves southward into the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Relative humidity values continue to drop across Deep South 
Texas, with western brush country and ranchland areas potentially 
diving into the teens by mid to late afternoon. Northwest winds 
have ramped up to 25 to 35 mph sustained at the surface, 
maintaining an elevated concern for erratic fire behavior this 
afternoon. While there are no fire weather products currently 
issued, burning of any kind is strongly discouraged. Relative 
humidity values on Friday drop into the teens once again out west 
with much lighter winds expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  60  80  61  83 /   0   0   0   0 
BROWNSVILLE          60  86  60  86 /   0   0   0   0 
HARLINGEN            59  87  58  88 /   0   0   0   0 
MCALLEN              60  88  60  89 /   0   0   0   0 
RIO GRANDE CITY      57  89  58  92 /   0   0   0   0 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   66  75  64  77 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ248-249.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Friday 
     for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

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