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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX (BRO)

FXUS64 KBRO 141953

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
253 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night): Overall weather 
conditions will remain unchanged through the short term period with 
mid-level ridging of high pressure centered over Southeast Texas. 
Temperatures will be around normal with highs in the mid 90s in the 
Lower Valley to around 100F in the Mid to Upper Valley. Rain chances 
will be very low and best along the coast and offshore. RH values 
inland will range from 40 to 50% in the RGV, which may be enough for 
isolated convection, but seabreeze initiation will be difficult with 
moderate to strong surface winds. Therefore, have kept silent 10% 
PoPs inland with 20% along the coast and over the Gulf waters. 
Surface high pressure over the eastern Gulf and lower pressure in 
the High Plains will maintain moderate southeast winds with stronger 
gusts this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): Long term continues to look
hot and generally dry for most of Deep South Texas through this
weekend. As low pressure moves from the Plains into the Northeast,
winds will diminish on Thursday; although, a weak mid level trough
of low pressure approaching Mexico and slightly increased low 
level moisture along the Gulf coast may provide enough 
ingredients for isolated seabreeze showers or thunderstorms each 
day through Sunday. Most of any convection will remain offshore. 

Models show deeper moisture ahead of an approaching front mid to 
late next week. Have increased pops slightly on Tuesday, but kept 
activity isolated at this time. High temperatures will consistently
top 100 degrees in central and western areas through the weekend,
with cloud cover keeping more locations below triple digits early
next week. Heat indices are expected to continue to range from 
105-109 degrees through the period. 


.MARINE (Now through Wednesday night): Moderate southeast winds 
will continue through the afternoon and pick up again tonight over
the Gulf waters overnight as surface high pressure remains in the
eastern Gulf with lower pressure in the High Plains. Small craft 
should exercise caution over the Laguna Madre this afternoon and 
possibly again Wednesday afternoon with winds ranging from 15 to 
20 knots.

Thursday through Sunday Night: Moderate seas of generally 2 to 4
feet are expected into this weekend on the Gulf of Mexico. A
moderate chop will persist on the Laguna Madre, especially during
afternoon and evening hours. The pressure gradient increases into
next week as a trough of low pressure builds across the Plains
into the Midwest, which could lead to small craft exercise 
caution conditions by Sunday.


BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  94  80  94 /  10  10  10  10 
BROWNSVILLE          80  96  79  97 /  10  10  10  10 
HARLINGEN            78  98  78  98 /  10  10  10  10 
MCALLEN              80 101  80 101 /  10   0   0   0 
RIO GRANDE CITY      78 102  78 103 /   0   0   0   0 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  86  81  86 /  10  20  10  10 




This product is also available on the web at:

Short Term/Aviation...Birchfield-65 
Long Term...Hallman-56