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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX (BRO)

FXUS64 KBRO 240856

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
356 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): A zonal mid-level flow will 
persist over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the 
forecast period with some slight 500 mb ridging over the region 
emanating from neighboring Mexico. This pattern, and relatively low 
available atmospheric moisture, will produce dry weather for the BRO 
CWFA for the end of the weekend and the early part of the new week. 
With no cold front passages likely and a persistent, breezy onshore 
flow prevailing in addition to abundant sunshine, above normal 
daytime high and overnight low temperatures are also anticipated. 

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday): The secondary surge of
high pressure from the north pushes a weak front into the region
later Monday night into Tuesday morning. moisture and support
aloft are limited, so shower activity will be few and far between
as it passes. Through the remainder of the week, H5 ridging moves
across the US, with more tranquil conditions expected. As the sfc
high moves off to the east, winds in the region will turn back to
the southeast, with a gradual return of Gulf moisture and a slow
increase in daytime highs each afternoon. Longer range models show
a potent trough digging into the central US, with a more
substantial cold front dropping through Texas on Saturday. This
front may bring a more substantial rain possibility for the
weekend, but inconsistencies between models keeps confidence low
for now.


Now through Monday: Buoy 42020 reported south-southeast winds 
around 10 knots gusting to around 12 knots with seas slightly over
3.5 feet with a period of 6 seconds at 250 CDT/750 UTC. Light to 
moderate winds and low to moderate seas will affect the Lower 
Texas Coast under the influence of high pressure. Small Craft 
Advisory is not likely to be needed.

Tuesday through Friday: Winds will be from the northeast on 
Tuesday as a weak front slows down across the northwest Gulf. The 
front washes out Tuesday evening, allowing winds to shifts back 
from the southeast by Wednesday, which will continue through the 
rest of the week. Winds all days will not reach above 15 knots at
any point. This will keeps seas modest, with swells generally 2 
to 4 feet through the week.


BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  68  81  66 /   0   0   0  20 
BROWNSVILLE          80  68  82  66 /   0   0   0  20 
HARLINGEN            82  67  84  65 /   0   0   0  20 
MCALLEN              84  68  87  67 /   0   0   0  20 
RIO GRANDE CITY      87  67  87  67 /   0   0   0  20 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   74  67  76  66 /   0   0   0  20 




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