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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX (BRO)

FXUS64 KBRO 251131 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
631 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

.AVIATION...A few changes were made to the previous set of TAFs.
Light fog has formed at HRL while BRO and MFE remain stable. VFR
will prevail today with backing and increasing winds as the
seabreeze boundary rolls through the region. VFR should continue
overnight tonight, but a slip into MVFR territory, especially at
MFE, cannot be ruled out. 

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018/ 

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): Unlike the past couple of 
nights, KBRO Doppler radar is devoid of any convection along the 
Lower Texas Coast. This might be a harbinger of what's to come 
across the entire BRO CWFA during the forecast period, as a 500 mb 
ridge of high pressure is expected to build north out of Mexico 
while closed 500 mb low pressure develops over the north-central 
Gulf of Mexico. This scenario will produce a mid-level flow 
increasingly from the north over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande 
Valley, leading to dry weather during the short term portion of the 
forecast. Meanwhile, a record high temperature was tied at McAllen 
Miller International Airport on Thursday, and with the previously 
mentioned synoptic pattern setting up, there is no reason to believe 
that above normal temperatures won't continue across the forecast 

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday):
Negligible changes in the ongoing extended forecast as models
continue to show the dominance of the midlevel ridge aloft. This
will continue to draw dry air across the region, keeping the
atmosphere stable, with mostly clear skies and heat index value
peaking around 105 each afternoon. 

Now through Saturday: Buoy 42020 reported southeast winds around 
8 knots gusting to around 10 knots with seas slightly under 2.5 
feet with a period of 6 seconds at 250 CDT/750 UTC. Persistent 
high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico will continue to 
produce light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas along the
Lower Texas Coast during the period, with Small Craft Exercise 
Caution and Small Craft Advisory not likely to be needed. A 
surface area of low pressure will begin to organize near the 
Yucatan Peninsula, but it is not expected to be of any threat to 
the Lower Texas Coast. 

Sunday through Tuesday: High pressure across the northwest Gulf
will keep light winds and seas going into the middle of next week.
Seas will generally remain 2 feet or less, with minimal chop on
the Laguna.



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