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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX (BRO)

                            
000
FXUS64 KBRO 192104
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
304 PM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night): Breezy north to northwest
winds continue across deep south Texas this afternoon. 
Temperatures should reach the upper 60s to the lower 70s before 
the stronger CAA arrives. North winds will gradually diminish to 
moderate levels this evening and into the overnight hours as 
surface high pressure builds into the region. Low temperatures 
tonight are expected to fall into the low to mid 40s. Dry 
northwest flow aloft and surface high pressure in place will 
provide abundant sunshine and light winds across the area on 
Sunday. Slightly cooler than average temperatures are expected on 
Sunday with high temperatures ranging from the upper 50s at the 
beaches to the low to mid 60s inland. Low temperatures Sunday 
night should fall into the 40s areawide.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday): A broad/flat 500mb ridge
across northeast Mexico and the south-central United States Monday
will move eastward as a 500mb trough develops and moves eastward across
the western U.S. Tuesday. Low to mid level moisture will increase
across portions of south Texas Tuesday into Tues night and this
will provide a chance of showers across the CWA Tues night into
Wednesday. A cold front will move through deep south TX late Tues
night into early Wed morning and there is a small window for
elevated convection to develop Wed morning through early Wed
afternoon before the upper level trough moves through southwest TX
and northeast Mexico Wed afternoon. Cooler air will filter into
the area in the wake of the front Wednesday with drier air aloft
moving into the area Wed afternoon. Subsidence will prevail
through the rest of the week into the weekend even as a weak 500mb
shortwave trough moves through south Texas Friday. A stronger
500mb trough will develop and move across the east-central U.S.
Saturday bringing a cold front through south TX. Not much moisture
along and ahead of this front so not much in the way of rain
chances are expected through the rest of the forecast period.  
&&

.MARINE (Now through Sunday night): Adverse marine conditions will 
continue on the lower Texas coastal waters through tonight. A Gale 
Warning remains in effect for the Gulf waters until 6 pm. A Small 
Craft Advisory is in effect for the Laguna Madre through midnight 
and is in effect for the Gulf waters from 6 pm to midnight for the 
Gulf waters. Additional Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed 
into Sunday morning due to lingering strong winds and high seas. 
Some improvement is expected on Sunday as surface high pressure 
settles across the area. 

Monday through Thursday...Moderate to strong south to southeast 
winds will prevail across the coastal waters Monday with low
pressure across the lee side of the Rockies and high pressure
across the eastern United States increasing the pressure gradient
across the lower Texas coast. Small craft advisories will likely
be needed for portions of the coastal waters Monday through
Tuesday before the pressure gradient weakens Tues night as a cold
front moves into south Texas. The front will move offshore the
lower Texas coast late Tues night into early Wed morning. Strong
to very strong north to northwest winds will develop across the
coastal waters in the wake of the front Wednesday with gusts to 
gale force likely. A gale watch will likely be needed for the 
offshore waters Wednesday with small craft advisories needed for 
the Laguna Madre Wednesday. Winds will diminish Wed night and seas
will follow suit Thursday as the pressure gradient weakens across
the western Gulf of Mexico Wed night into Thursday. Light 
northeast winds will prevail across the western Gulf Thursday with
surface high pressure across the middle and upper TX coast.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry air continues to surge into the area this 
afternoon in the wake of the morning cold front. Breezy to windy 
north to northwest winds continue across portions of deep south 
Texas this afternoon. The combination of strong winds, low relative 
humidity values, and cured fuels will result in critical fire 
weather conditions through early this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning 
is now in effect until 6 pm this evening areawide. Winds will 
gradually diminish through this late this evening as high pressure 
builds into the region. 
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  45  59  49  71 /   0   0   0   0 
BROWNSVILLE          43  62  47  71 /   0   0   0   0 
HARLINGEN            41  62  45  73 /   0   0   0   0 
MCALLEN              44  64  45  74 /   0   0   0   0 
RIO GRANDE CITY      42  64  44  75 /   0   0   0   0 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   49  58  52  69 /   0   0   0   0 
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ248>257-351-
     353.

GM...Small Craft Advisory for winds until midnight CST tonight for 
     GMZ130-132-135.

     Gale Warning until midnight CST tonight for GMZ170-175.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight CST 
     tonight for GMZ150-155.

     Gale Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ150-155.
&&

$$

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