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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX (BRO)

FXUS64 KBRO 260931

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
431 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Front continues to slowly drift 
southward across south Texas, and is still timed to get close to the 
river later this morning. Some moisture pooling just ahead of the 
front may briefly bring some lower vis from fog, but this will 
likely be limited to the northern zones just ahead of the front. 
Shower activity has been minimal so far on the front, but is 
expected to pick up a bit around midday with the increase in daytime 
heating. Increased cloud cover and northeast flow will hold temps 
back slightly from yesterday, only reaching the mid 70s. Cloud cover 
stays in place across the area tonight, with lows falling to around 
60. Enough drier air moves in behind the front to hold off of fog 
formation tonight, except maybe the coastal areas of the King Ranch. 
High pressure moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, 
allowing winds to shift back from the southeast during the day as 
the front washes out. This allows temps to rebound back to near 80, 
especially near the coast where more breaks in the cloud cover are 

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday): The main event in
this portion of the overall forecast continues to be the approach
and passage of a tandem of a surface cold front and a 500 mb
trough through the BRO CWFA during the weekend. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are anticipated Saturday night through Sunday, 
with this convection transitioning to light rain for Sunday night 
and Monday as a brief overrunning situation briefly prevails in 
the wake of the front/trough combination. Before the initiation of
the convection Saturday night, 500 mb ridging over Deep South 
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will produce dry weather. Below 
normal temperatures are likely in the wake of the cold front, with
more near normal values expected in advance of the boundary. 

.MARINE (Now through Wednesday): A little more agitation across the 
marine areas during the next 36 hours as a weak cold front moves 
through the region. Winds will not rise much behind the front, 
turning from the northeast in the 10 to 15 knot range. The northeast 
fetch along the coast will nudge wave swells up to near 4 feet for 
all Gulf waters through the period. High pressure moves east 
tonight, switching winds back from the southeast, but remaining 
light into Wednesday.

Wednesday Night through Monday: The passage of a cold front
through the Lower Texas Coast late Saturday night through the
early pre-dawn hours of Sunday morning will produce borderline
Small Craft Advisory conditions Sunday and Monday. Ahead of the
front, Small Craft Exercise Caution may be needed for portions or
all of the lower Texas coastal waters Wednesday night through

BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  73  64  74  64 /  20  10  10   0 
BROWNSVILLE          75  63  77  64 /  30  10  10   0 
HARLINGEN            76  63  77  63 /  30  10  10   0 
MCALLEN              76  66  79  65 /  30  10  10   0 
RIO GRANDE CITY      75  65  80  64 /  30  20  10   0 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   70  65  71  65 /  20  10  10   0 



This product is also available on the web at:

Short Term...Straub-64 
Long Term...Tomaselli-66 
Meso/Upper Air...Farris-69