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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX (BRO)

                            
817 
FXUS64 KBRO 151947
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
247 PM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): Mid-level ridging of high 
pressure will remain in place across the South-Central United 
States, leading to similar weather conditions through the period as 
the past several days. Hot, but near-normal temperatures can be 
expected with highs in the mid to upper 90s for most of the inland 
areas of Deep South Texas this afternoon and again Thursday 
afternoon. Shallow moisture may allow for a couple inland showers to 
develop along the seabreeze, but otherwise most areas will be dry. 
The best chance of rain will be along the coast and over the marine 
areas with slightly higher available moisture.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): The weekend looks hot and 
mostly dry for the region with high pressure in control. A couple 
of seabreeze showers or thunderstorms can't be ruled out each day 
from the late morning to early afternoon along the coastal 
counties, with better chances offshore; however, moisture is 
rather limited. As a trough of low pressure works into the Plains 
and Midwest, the pressure gradient will increase along the Gulf 
coast Sunday into Monday. Slightly better moisture arrives Tuesday
into Wednesday ahead of a stalling frontal boundary through 
northern and central Texas. Have left isolated pops at this time 
Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening. 

Temperatures remain above normal with triple digit heat expected 
through the period in western and central portions of Deep South 
Texas. With breezy southerly winds, high temperatures on Sunday 
and Monday may bump a degree or two higher. A slight break in 
afternoon heat is possible Tuesday and Wednesday due to increased 
cloud cover. Heat indices remain in the 105-110 degree range this 
weekend into next week. While heat indices are expected to remain 
below heat advisory criteria, conditions may need to be monitored 
Sunday and Monday. 

&&

.MARINE (Now through Thursday Night): Surface high pressure centered 
off the coast of the Carolinas and stretched into the eastern Gulf 
of Mexico will maintain moderate southeast winds over the lower 
Texas coastal waters. Small craft should exercise caution in the Bay 
waters through the evening and possibly again Thursday afternoon.

Friday through Monday Night: The weekend will start off generally
favorable across coastal waters with high pressure in control. 
Light to moderate seas of up to 2 to 4 feet are expected on the 
Gulf of Mexico, while a moderate chop will persist on the Laguna 
Madre during afternoon and evening hours. Southerly winds increase
Sunday and Monday, likely leading to small craft exercise caution
conditions across the bay and possibly Gulf of Mexico waters as 
well. Conditions begin to improve on Tuesday. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  94  79  93 /  10  10  10  10 
BROWNSVILLE          80  97  79  96 /  10  10  10  10 
HARLINGEN            78  99  78  98 /  10  10  10  10 
MCALLEN              80 102  79 100 /   0  10   0  10 
RIO GRANDE CITY      78 103  77 102 /   0   0   0   0 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  86  80  88 /  10  10  10  10 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short Term/Aviation...Birchfield-65
Long Term...Hallman-56
PSU/Graphicast...Bogorad-59