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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX (BRO)

FXUS64 KBRO 251147 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
647 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Lingering rain showers along the immediate coast this
morning may produce a few showers over and near KBRO and KHRL
otherwise most of the lower clouds and convection has dissipated.
VFR to prevail today with steady cumulus development through the
morning and early afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms may try to
re-develop if the atmosphere recovers and destablizes. Added tempo
groups for the late afternoon. Some showers if they do develop
could persist into the early evening. Southeast winds are
expected to be in the moderate range with gusts only up to 20


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 435 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019/ 

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday):Cloud tops rapidly warming
and rain is finally tapering off. Flooding continues across a 
large berth of the Mid and Lower Rio Grande Valley especially from
Harlingen to McAllen where 6 to 12 inches fell in about 6 hours. 

Currently, the atmosphere is likely worked over and at least 
temporarily stabilized with rain cooled air covering much of the 
CWA with temperatures in the low to mid 70s. CAMs and 
deterministic models continue to advertise a modest chance of 
showers and thunderstorms Today with a weak low pressure along 
the Western Gulf coast and a good fetch of tropical air flow 
around the Bermuda ridge extending over the Eastern Gulf. 
Temperatures today to say the least will start off cooler and only
warm up to around normal with the rain soaked ground and 
lingering cloud cover. Muggy conditions are expected with dew 
points recovering but with the lower ambient temperatures heat 
indices to remain below 110 degrees.

Residual moisture and the lingering weakness along with light ESE
winds may lead to sea breeze convection Wednesday afternoon.
Temperatures may recover a few degrees but staying near normal. 

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday): High pressure builds
for Wednesday night and Thursday with rain chances the lowest of
the week. Models show an inverted trough moving west across the
Gulf approaching the Texas coast Friday and moving over South
Texas Saturday through next Tuesday. Will expand the chance of
rain keeping at around 30 percent at this time but will likely see
some increase as we progress through the week. Best chance for
rain would be next Sunday and Monday at this point in time if
timing of this next disturbance remains constant. GFS and ECMWF
both show his feature so confidence is above average. Temperatures
to peak Thursday and Friday then trend lower next weekend and
early next week as the inverted trough moves overhead increasing
cloud cover and rain chances. 

MARINE: (Today through Wednesday) Winds and seas lowering early
this morning as the thunderstorm end. General moderate southeast
winds resume today with seas continuing to subside. Broad surface
ridging to maintain a more typical Summer moderate onshore flow
and a slight to moderate sea by late this morning continuing into 
tonight and Wednesday. Not expecting any SCA or Exercise caution
conditions at this time. Showers and thunderstorms tapering off
this morning may redevelop again this afternoon. 

Wednesday night through Saturday...Surface high pressure centered
over the Southeast U.S. to extend over the Gulf maintaining a 
light to occasional moderate southeast flow much of the coming 
week and next weekend. Not expecting any Small Craft Advisories at
this time. Streamer showers may become more prevalent Thursday 
night with an increase in showers and thunderstorms Friday 
through next weekend. 




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