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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Boston / Norton, MA (BOX)

                            
000
FXUS61 KBOX 150901
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
501 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Any lingering showers at sunrise over Cape Cod and the Islands 
will move offshore and give way to a dry warm Sunday afternoon 
behind a departing cold front. A secondary trailing cold front 
may result in a few showers tonight into Monday. Otherwise, an 
extended period of dry weather is expected beginning Tuesday and
likely continuing into next weekend as Canadian high pressure 
crests across the region. The high will initially be accompanied
by unseasonably cool weather Tuesday into Thursday morning. A 
gradual warmup is expected with temperatures possibly rebounding
into the 80s Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Scattered showers remain across the southern waters, with the 
northern fringe sneaking into the islands early this morning. 
The approaching cold front, extending from western Maine to 
western Massachusetts into northern Delaware early this morning
will continue to slowly cross the region today, but it will 
remain dry. The front finally reaches the southern waters this 
evening before stalling near or south of Long Island as the 
front becomes nearly parallel to the zonal mid level steering 
flow.

Noting the low clouds associated with the front have push to
southern areas, mainly along the S coast and the adjacent
coastal waters. However, with the briefly clearing skies, light
winds and low T/Td spreads, there are areas of low stratus 
clouds as well as areas of fog which are locally dense away from
the coast at 08Z. Should see the fog burn off rather quickly 
with the mainly clear skies above the stratus, though some fog 
may linger across portions of Cape Cod and the islands through 
around midday. 

With W-NW winds in place behind the exiting front, temps will
rebound nicely across the region. H85 temps will range from +8C
across NE Mass to +11C across N central CT this afternoon. This
should translate to highs reaching the mid 70s to around 80.
Readings may be a bit cooler along the S coast as winds remain
from the SW. Clouds will start to move into northern Mass during
this afternoon ahead of the next approaching system. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

Tonight and Sunday...

The nearly zonal H5 flow across the region will allow moisture
from approaching low pres out of NY state to move in. 00Z
guidance giving a strong signal of this low as it shifts E-SE
overnight into Sunday. With this system coming from moisture
starved inland areas, may not see much precip. PWATs may rise up
to 1.3 to 1.4 inches by Monday afternoon across southern areas,
but not expecting much in the way of QPF. May see around 0.1
inches, maybe a bit higher across western areas closer to the
passing low. Expect the precip to push S of the Mass Pike during
the afternoon, but should weaken as it shifts toward the S 
coast late in the day. 

Temps should fall back to the 50s to around 60 tonight, mildest
along the S coast, with highs on Monday in the upper 60s to 
around 70. 

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Updated 340 AM ...

Highlights...

* An extended period of dry weather is likely Tuesday thru Saturday
* Fall-like Tue/Wed with highs only in the 60s and lows in the 40s 
* Summer-like warmth possible Fri and Sat with highs in the 80s

Precipitation ...

Looks like an extended period of dry weather as high amplitude 
pattern evolves with deep closed mid level low over the northwest 
Atlantic along with upstream 588 dam ridge from the MS Valley into 
the Great Lakes. This setup supports dry northwest flow into New 
England. Thus dry weather should prevail Tue thru Sat per ensembles 
and deterministic guidance. Definitely a pleasant stretch of weather. 

Temperatures ...

Very pleasant fall-like weather this period featuring mild days and 
cool nights. Cooler air begins to advect into the region Monday 
night into Tue as trailing short wave energy dives into the base of 
Maritime trough. EC ensembles have core of cool air centered over 
eastern MA Wed into Thu morning with 850 mb temps down to only +3C! 
This will translate to highs only in the 60s Tue and Wed despite 
plenty of sunshine. Normal high this time of year is 70-75. Lows 
will be mainly in the 40s, low 50s in the urban areas. As 588 dam 
ridge over the OH Valley builds eastward into New England expect a 
noticeable warmup with summer-like warmth possible Fri and Sat as 
highs likely climb into the 80s with EC ensembles offering +15C at 
850 mb. Given 1025+ mb Canadian high pressure over the region much 
of next week, weak pgradient/light winds and dry airmass will 
support radiational cooling. Thus will lean toward the cooler MOS 
nighttime temps. Light pgradient will also support afternoon 
seabreezes. 

Tropical Storm Humberto ...

Good model agreement that Humberto will track away from the east 
coast next week and then possibly impact Bermuda around Thursday. 
Thereafter the ECMWF continues its theme of anomalous western 
Atlantic trough capturing Humberto and lifting the tropical cyclone 
northward across eastern Georges Bank and towards Nova Scotia 
Fri/Sat. While this track is still southeast of New England it's 
close enough to watch closely. At the very least this track would 
yield large swells for MA/RI waters and with temps likely warming 
into the 80s Fri/Sat, rough surf and strong rip currents could be a 
concern for ocean exposed beaches. The ECMWF solution is a low 
probability but will have to be watched given other EC ensemble 
members support the operational run.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...High confidence.

Through 12Z... 
Areas of MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS, with local LIFR conditions will 
linger through the remainder of the night. Noting areas of VFR 
conditions across NE interior Mass as well as the mid and lower 
CT valley, but conditions will vary with the lingering low 
clouds and patchy fog there. May slowly improve across N 
central/NE Mass after 09Z. SW winds 5-10 kt with some gusts to 
around 15-20 kt across S RI/S coastal Mass terminals, which are 
beginning to shift to W-NW across the Berkshires as well as 
higher terrain such as Worcester. 

Today... 
MVFR-IFR conditions may linger along the S coast as well as the
southern islands and coastal waters through a good portion of 
the day. A few showers and patchy fog may linger across portions
of the mid and outer Cape as well as Nantucket through most of 
the day. Otherwise, inland fog should lift with conditions 
improving to VFR by mid to late morning. W-NW winds at 5-10 kt, 
though holding from the SW across Cape Cod and the islands 
through most of the day. 

Tonight...
Clouds increase from NW-SE during the night as another weak 
system approaches. Mainly VFR conditions, but may see local MVFR
in any showers or patchy fog. MVFR-IFR VSBYS through around 05Z
in patchy fog across Cape Cod and the islands. Scattered 
showers may push into into N central and NW Mass after 06Z with 
the next system. Light W-NW or calm winds. 

Monday...
Mainly VFR conditions. May see brief, local MVFR in any 
showers, but should weaken as they move S during the
afternoon. Light northerly winds early, becoming NW 5-10 kt
during the afternoon. 

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF trends.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF trends. 

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...High confidence.

VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...High confidence.

Winds to diminish after frontal passage this morning, though 
will stall along the S coast or across the coastal waters by 
this evening. Expect W winds up to about 10 kt on the eastern 
waters, but light W-SW winds on the southern waters. Mainly good
visibility, but low clouds/fog may linger across the waters 
near the mid and outer Cape with visibility restrictions. Seas 4
ft or less.

Dry conditions across the waters tonight. W wind 10 kt or less
shift to N toward daybreak. Visibility restrictions linger 
early tonight across the southern waters to the waters E of Cape
Cod, but should improve by 05Z-06Z. May see local visibility
restrictions as scattered showers move into the eastern waters
by daybreak. Seas 3 ft or less. 

On Monday, area of showers moves across the region rather
quickly, weakening as they push off the S coast late in the day.
May see local visibility restrictions in the showers. N winds at
10 kt or less become light/variable during the afternoon. Seas 3
ft or less.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...Moderate confidence.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. 

Tuesday through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Nocera
AVIATION...Nocera/EVT
MARINE...Nocera/EVT