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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Denver/Boulder, CO (BOU)

FXUS65 KBOU 250212

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
812 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Issued at 806 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2019

No significant changes to the forecast tonight. Clearing skies 
overnight across the region. Gusty winds will linger above 
timberline, but decrease elsewhere. 

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 217 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2019

A persistent wave cloud is over the northern foothills with 
continued subsidence beneath a 586 DM ridge over the region. 
Dewpoints across the region range from the mid 30s to lower 40 with 
gusty westerly winds with downsloping conditions. Slightly lighter 
NE winds south of Denver will bring enough upslope enhancement to 
keep a slight chance of storms for the late afternoon hours. Mid 
level steering flow will push storms to the ENE into the early 
afternoon hours. Dewpoints are slightly better eastward across areas 
of Elbert and Lincoln county with model soundings nearly dry 
adiabatic. This help to keep lapse rates high and will aid in 
sustaining some cells. The main hazard from these storms will be 
some light rain or virga with gusting up to 30 mph at times. 
Conditions overnight will be partly cloudy with lows in the lower 

For Tuesday, the ridge continues to build over the region with 
models showing a weak shortwave embedded in the flow aloft. Moisture 
is lacking in the mid levels with model soundings continuing to show 
dry low levels. Higher chances exist over the mountains for some 
afternoon convection with diurnal heating with storms moving over 
the lower elevations by the afternoon. These storms will bring 
similar impacts to today with light rain and gusty winds. 
Temperatures will continue the upward trend with highs into the mid 
80s across the plains and 60s to 70s in the high country. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 333 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Upper ridging will moving into the CWA from the south and 
southeast Tuesday night through Thursday night. The flow aloft 
will be weak and west-southwesterly all five periods. The synoptic
scale energy is benign through Thursday night. The low level wind
and pressure fields show predominately south to southeasterly 
winds much of the time. Moisture-wise, it is limited through the 
periods. There is some in the middle and upper levels but not too 
much in the lower levels. Some of the models show increased low 
level moisture getting into the eastern border CWA late day 
Wednesday. Better low level moisture is progged across much of the
plains late day Thursday. There is limited CAPE over the 
mountains and far northeast corner Tuesday evening. There is 
limited CAPE over most of the CWA late day Wednesday, with high 
values over the far eastern border. Late day Thursday, the CAPE is
pretty sparse, with the exception of the northern corner where 
values are fairly high. The QPF fields have a bit of measurable 
rainfall over the southwestern CWA and northern border areas. Late
day Wednesday looks similar for the locations but less coverage. 
There is limited QPF over a large area of the CWA late day 
Thursday, but there isn't much. Will go with some 10-30% pops in 
limited areas Tuesday evening and late day Wednesday. For 
temperatures, Wednesday's highs are 1-4 C warmer than Tuesday's 
highs. Thursday's highs are 2-4 C warmer than Wednesday's. For 
the later days, Friday through Monday, models continue to show an 
upper ridge over the CWA all four days with weak west-southwesterly
flow aloft. ThE GFS does have enough moisture around through the 
period for a chance of late day showers and thunderstorms each 
day. Other models are not as optimistic. Temperatures will stay 
above seasonal normals. 


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 806 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Light winds under 10 knots will dominate into Tuesday morning. 
Winds are currently transitioning to southerly drainage which will
persist tonight. A southerly wind component will stick around 
through the morning. Late Tuesday afternoon showers will move off
the high terrain bringing gusty winds to 25 knots to DEN, APA, 
and BJC between 20Z-00Z.