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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Denver/Boulder, CO (BOU)

FXUS65 KBOU 251019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
419 AM MDT Sun Aug 25 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 419 AM MDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Only minor changes to the forecast this morning as the plan for a
warmer day with windy conditions in the mountains looks good.
There is still some moisture hanging out along the eastern border
with some low clouds and maybe some patchy fog east of Sterling
and Akron for a few hours this morning. There are also some high
clouds on the nose of the jet pushing across the northern Rockies.
These will be over our area this morning then slide eastward this
afternoon, so they shouldn't affect today's high temperatures.

The other change was more wind over the higher mountains. We've
already seen gusts over 50 mph above timberline this morning. 

The rest of the forecast is in order, with winds mixing to the
surface later this morning and what remains of the moisture mixing
out. There will be less wind and less drying over far eastern
Colorado, but it should still dry enough to prevent convection.
There's a slight chance of some convection brushing the northeast
corner with the cold front late tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 419 AM MDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday drop to around 80 as a couple 
of cool fronts push into the Front Range from the northeast. The 
first will push into the urban corridor late tonight with the next
one expected to move into the northeast plains Tuesday morning. 
Along and west of the Continental Divide, a dry northwesterly 
flow will prevail with little if any thunderstorm coverage. From 
the foothills eastward however, weak low level easterly surges 
will provide enough moisture for a slight chance of showers or 
thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday. Temperatures will rebound 
by the middle of the week as the upper level ridge builds over the
central Rockies. Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will climb back 
around 90. Increasing subsidence aloft will less than chance of 
thunderstorms with a weaker northwesterly flow aloft as well. 
Friday and Saturday, another system and an associated cold front 
will bring cooler temperatures and a better chance of 
thunderstorms the region. The best chance of thunderstorms will be
from the Foothills and Palmer Divide eastward across the 
northeast plains Friday and Friday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 419 AM MDT Sun Aug 25 2019

VFR through tonight. West winds will develop over the Denver area
by 15z and become more northwesterly by 18z with gusts of 20 to 25
knots expected. There may be another period of west winds between
00z and 04z, but speeds are expected to be diminishing at that
time, then winds should go more southerly.


Issued at 419 AM MDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Increasing winds will lead to Red Flag conditions by midday over
the mountains. Gusts in the 30-40 mph range will be common with
humidities dropping to around 15 percent. Along the Cheyenne Ridge
it will be a bit less windy, but with lower humidities. Other
areas will also be near Red Flag criteria. Further south on the 
plains, it will be pretty dry but with wind gusts in the 15-25 mph
range. Finally, the higher mountains will have higher humidities,
in the 15-25 percent range, but very strong winds with gusts 
between 40-60 mph this afternoon.

Monday and Tuesday, the fire danger will remain elevated at times
primarily in North, Middle and South Parks due to the persistent 
dry conditions. Less wind and cooler temperatures elsewhere will 
lessen the fire danger.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this 
evening for COZ211-213>215-238-242.



SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Cooper
FIRE WEATHER...Gimmestad/Cooper