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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Denver/Boulder, CO (BOU)

FXUS65 KBOU 241645

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1045 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Issued at 1045 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Subsidence near mountain top seen on WV will help to continue
robust wave cloud into the early afternoon hours. Dissipation is
expected by the late afternoon as lift from NW flow aloft will
push into the area. Roughly a 584 DM ridge is in place keeping a
slight chance of midday convection over the higher terrain and
higher elevations of the Palmer Divide today. Kept pops low with
only light rain and some gusty winds expected. Made slight
adjustments to pops and winds, otherwise, forecast is on track. 


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 425 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Drier and much warmer conditions will prevail today as an upper
level ridge begins building over the state and dry westerly flow
aloft prevails. Temperatures won't quite reach the seasonal
normal, but afternoon highs around 80 will sure feel a lot warmer
than the weekend that just passed. Skies should be mostly sunny
except for some lee wave clouds along and east of the Continental
Divide. The mountains and Palmer Divide may see a few showers
develop through the afternoon hours, just because there will be
strong heating from the sun and the developing upper ridge will
not have enough subsidence to quell the diurnal pattern of
building thermals. Only light precipitation amounts will result
from the few showers that develop. Tonight should see mostly clear
skies prevail with temperatures dropping to a few degrees below

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 425 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2019

The weather for the upcoming week will be characterized 
by warming temperatures and generally dry conditions. The exception 
will be isolated late day showers and thunderstorms, especially over 
the mountains, higher terrain areas and portions of far eastern

For Tuesday, the flow will be more westerly with enough moisture in 
the mid and upper levels for isolate day showers and storms. 
Forecast soundings showing inverted-v type profiles resulting in 
impacts of gusty winds but little rainfall. Temperatures will 
continue to warm as 700mb temperatures climb to around +12 and 
resulting in afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s.  

For Wednesday through Friday, a strong low pressure area will park 
itself along the Pacific northwest coast and a resultant southwest 
flow aloft over Colorado. This will result in further warming and 
expect afternoon highs will top the 90 degree mark for Thursday and 
Friday across lower elevations. There will be some return of low 
level moisture across the eastern plains as low level flow shifts 
more southeasterly. Forecast models showing a dry line evolution 
by Wednesday afternoon which could focus convection on the far 
eastern plains with CAPE values exceeding 2000j/kg. SPC also has 
far eastern Colorado under a marginal risk of severe storms. Will 
indicate some higher pops in this region as well. 

By this weekend, the southern high plains ridge will be well 
entrenched and appears to begin to tap deeper moisture back into 
eastern Colorado. Expect a bit better storm coverage during the 
afternoon and evenings while temperatures remain quite warm. 


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 1045 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2019

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will
predominately be from the WNW through 03z before moving to
drainage. some gusting is possible between 22 and 02z.




SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...Entrekin