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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by NWS Birmingham, Alabama (BMX)

                            
000
FXUS64 KBMX 192334
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
634 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0336 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019/

Currently we have a surface frontal boundary that extends from E
MS into SW AL, then continuing into the E Gulf of Mexico. 
Generally along and south of this front, there is a nice line of 
convection that has formed with heating. I do not expect anything
strong across our counties here in Central Alabama as we are on 
the drier side of the boundary. However, will continue to carry an
isolated mention in for Sumter and Marengo Counties through 
sunset for any convection that might drift our way before falling 
apart. Winds are beginning to taper down some across the area as 
the ridge settles in over the Atlantic states and pressure 
gradients relax. With a drier and cooler flow, overnight lows 
tonight should be 10 to 12 degrees lower. Some mid/high cloudiness
is possible in the west half of C AL as a lingering byproduct of 
storms currently ongoing across MS. 

Only change made to the extended was to raise pops for Monday in
the northwest counties with the approach of the next system. Did 
not adjust any other time periods due to much disagreement in the 
extended guidance. 

08

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0351 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019/
Friday through Wednesday. 

The upper-level pattern will support a large area of high pressure 
across the eastern CONUS on Friday. With the surface high centered 
in North Carolina, the airmass associated with easterly flow will 
result in temperatures much closer to average for this time of year. 
Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s are expected on Friday with 
lows in the lower to mid 60 for Saturday morning. A slow warming 
trend should take place over the weekend and into the upcoming week 
as the high pressure retreats. 90s should become widespread for 
Sunday and Monday. 

An upper-level trough passing through the Great Lakes and Ohio 
Valley will be associated with an approaching cold front for late 
Monday into Tuesday. Rain chances are currently expected to diminish 
as the front moves toward Alabama due to poor moisture quality and 
weak low-level convergence. An airmass change also appears unlikely, 
meaning above average temperatures should continue into Wednesday. 

87/Grantham


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions are forecast the entire period. Surface high
pressure has pushed westward and into Central Alabama through the
day. These easterly winds were gusting at times and an are
expected to decrease the next few hours. But the winds will remain
easterly at 5-9kts overnight in most places. Winds veer slightly
on Friday and will increase to 6-10kts. There will be enough
moisture for some cumulus to develop around 5-6k ft along with
some high level cirrus. Moisture was pushed off to the west and no
rain in the forecast as we stay too dry.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... 

Except for a very isolated shower or thunderstorm possible across
far southwestern counties this afternoon, dry and warm conditions
will continue through the weekend. Afternoon relative humidity 
values are expected to remain above 30 percent each afternoon 
through the end of the week. KBDI values will remain elevated as 
drought conditions persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     61  85  60  88  62 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Anniston    61  86  61  88  63 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Birmingham  65  87  64  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Tuscaloosa  67  89  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Calera      63  87  63  89  65 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Auburn      61  84  64  86  64 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Montgomery  64  88  65  91  66 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Troy        62  87  64  89  65 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None. 

&&

$$