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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Bismarck, ND (BIS)

                            
000
FXUS63 KBIS 190004
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
704 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 702 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

Quiet weather continues this evening with winds expecting to taper
off some over the next hour or two. Cold front is now positioned
just to the northwest of far northwest North Dakota, and that will
shift into the area later this evening bringing a wind shift to
the northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

Cooling off for tomorrow with windy conditions.

Current surface weather observations show a cold front draped
across Saskatchewan, moving south. Expect this cold front to move
through northwest North Dakota around 00z Friday, pushing south 
and east through all of western and central North Dakota by 09z
Friday. Forecast NAM/GFS BUFR soundings and current water vapor
imagery show plenty of dry air throughout the entire troposphere,
making it difficult for any precipitation to form along the cold
front. Therefore, expect a dry frontal passage with only a few
high clouds.

Post frontal winds on Friday will be gusty. The latest CONSMOS
guidance suggests sustained northwest winds between 20 and 25 mph
during the afternoon across western and central North Dakota, with
gusts up to 35 mph at times. Despite the gusty winds, it does not
look like winds will be strong enough to meet Wind Advisory 
criteria. The latest blend of model guidance suggests highs in the
50s tomorrow with mostly sunny skies.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

An overall quiet weather pattern with seasonable to above normal
temperatures highlights the long term forecast.

Saturday looks to be the coolest day of the weekend as a ridge
over the northwest U.S. retrogrades and amplifies. The latest
suite of model guidance suggests highs near 40 across the Turtle
Mountains tot he mid 50s southwest. The ridge then attempts
pushing eastward while flattening, allowing temperatures to warm 
back up a bit on Sunday when highs will climb back into the upper 
50s and lower 60s across the southwest and south central. 

Another ridge will reamplify across the western U.S. on Monday,
with the ridge axis moving across North Dakota Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. The 12z iterations of the GFS/ECMWF both
show 850 mb temperatures warming to 10 to 15 degrees Celcius on
Wednesday. If enough sunshine and mixing occurs, this may allow
temperatures to warm well into the 60s to lower 70s on Wednesday.
Given the uncertainty regarding cloud cover six days out, it is
difficult to say how warm it will get next week at this time. In
addition, spotty showers may be possible on Wednesday as a weak
upper level shortwave tries moving eastward through western and 
central North Dakota.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 702 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

VFR through the forecast period. Winds will become northwest and
gusty on Friday behind a cold front.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...JJS