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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Bismarck, ND (BIS)

FXUS63 KBIS 201447

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
947 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Issued at 942 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Very little change with this forecast update outside of observed
trends through 14 UTC. Still expecting a bit of a temperature
difference over the remaining snow across the Missouri Coteau. 

UPDATE Issued at 617 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Current forecast trending ok. Light fog with visibilities of 3 to
5 miles mainly north this morning. The only change would be to
downplay the fog as it is more inconsequential this morning.  


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

The milder weather pattern will continue today as a closed upper
low will transit the central Plains States, with a weak REX
Block over North Dakota Friday night into Saturday. Adopted the 
Superblend highs with temperatures over the snow covered areas 
about 5 to 10 degrees cooler. This impact will be going away this 
weekend as the snow continues to melt. 

Models have been progressively trending the precipitation further
south for Friday afternoon and Friday night and this model run 
continues that trend. Most of the POPs are south of the border 
with just a slight chance of rain across the far southern 
sections. Again followed the Superblend for temperatures in the
lower 30s Friday night. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Weak mid level flow with h500 high over h500 low pattern can be 
associated with stratus/fog. Looked at the NAM bufkit soundings, 
Saturday which show stratus across the southern areas of the 
state. The clouds may linger through the day Saturday so trimmed 
the highs a bit south and increased clouds through the day.

Sunday will see a dry cold frontal passage move through associated 
with a shortwave trough across souther Canada. Good mixing and 
some sun behind the front should help warm highs at least into the
mid to upper 50s most areas. We do see lower dewpoints and 
relative humidities across western North Dakota, so some elevated
fire weather concerns continues with minimum RH values around 25 
percent. Also used the generally windier CONSMOS guidance for 
winds Sunday but feel the Fire Weather threat will remain below 
very high west.

For the remainder of the forecast accepted the Superblend guidance 
within a generally progressive flow. A shortwave trough moves
through Monday night and Tuesday bringing a good chance for rain 
across the south. A brief rain/snow mix is possible Monday night
but temperatures should be to warm for accumulations. Highs for 
the week should be in the 50s to lower 60s, except for Tuesday 
which will be in the upper 40s and 50s. The remainder of the week
will be in the mid 50s to around 60 which will be a bit cooler 
than normal but close.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 942 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

VFR conditions today across western and central North Dakota ahead
of surface low pressure across central Montana.