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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Binghamton, NY (BGM)

                            
000
FXUS61 KBGM 210130
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
830 PM EST Wed Feb 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Dual low pressure systems will move through the region tonight 
bringing a wintry mix. High pressure will build into the region 
for a short duration on Friday before another low pressure 
system brings the next round of precipitation later this 
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
830 PM update...
Local radars show a more significant area of precipitation
moving into the central southern tier and northeast
Pennsylvania at this time. This area of precipitation is being
forcing by a mid level short wave and isentropic lift. The
heavier activity will last about three hours before diminishing.
This area of precipitation will fall mainly as freezing rain 
with the southern tier and northeast Pennsylvania getting the
most ice accretion. From the southern tier to the western
Catskills ice accretion around a tenth of an inch is likely.
Across northeast Pennsylvania amounts will range from one to 
two tenths. For the remained of the area a tenth of an inch or 
less is expected. After midnight the precipitation will lessen 
as the wave moves east and temperatures will start warming above
freezing especially west of I81. 

previous disc...
Two low pressure systems will continue 
tracking to the north. The first area of low pressure will move 
the Great Lakes with the second area of low pressure tracking up
the east coast. Late this afternoon, where precipitation is 
lightest it has been in the form of a wintry mix. Areas of 
steadier precipitation, where snowflake production is more 
efficient, precipitation has been in the form of snow. Based on 
the observations, the primary changeover line is near Avoca and 
stretches westward toward Bradford. This line should come 
northeastward late this afternoon and evening. However, 
precipitation types may still change a bit based on intensity. 
Given lighter precipitation on average this afternoon this 
forecast lowers snowfall totals for the remainder of the day 
quite a few locations in the Southern Tier northward could see 
less than an inch of snow. 

Temperatures will continue to warm throughout the night as well. 
Leaned toward the NAM-hires with the temperatures which gets most 
locations to freezing gradually through the overnight with the 700-
800 mb layer warming above freezing early in the evening. With that 
said, precipitation tonight should change from freezing rain to 
rain. Lowered QPF amounts given the continued dry air in place. 
Still a tenth of an inch in glaze could occur in a few spots leading 
to slick surfaces. The winter weather advisory will continue given 
the threat for incing. 

With a few breaks in the clouds and continued warm air advection 
Thursday highs should get well into the 40's. Some lingering light 
lake effect precipitation is possible focused in Oneida county 
through Thursday night. Any additional snow accumulation looks to be 
minor.  With a increased pressure gradient from the departing lows 
and approaching high some westerly wind gusts of around 20-25 mph 
are likely tomorrow afternoon which matches projections from bufkit. 
Clearing will continue to be slow Thursday night with temperatures 
falling back into the mid 20's.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure extending from the Great Lakes will keep our 
weather clear for Friday and Friday night. Temperatures will peak 
between 35 and 40 degrees on Friday, then fall into the upper-teens 
and lower-20s Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Saturday...A powerful storm spinning into the Ohio Valley will 
spread mixed precipitation into our southern forecast area Saturday 
morning. Temperatures will climb into the 40s during the day and 
change the precipitation to rain as it spreads across the region. 
Colder temperatures Saturday night will cause a mix of rain and 
sleet to fall, especially along and east of I-81.

Sunday...The cyclone will track into Northern Michigan on Sunday and 
pull very mild air and rain showers into NY and PA. Temperatures 
will climb above 50 degrees by Sunday afternoon before the cyclone 
drags a strong cold front across our region and changes the rain 
showers over to snow showers late Sunday night. The cyclone and cold 
front will be accompanied by very gusty winds. Stay tuned for 
statements regarding the potential wind event.

Monday and Tuesday...Polar air behind the cyclone will pour 
into NY and PA during this period. Scattered lake effect snow 
showers are anticipated. A weak wave moving through the Mid- 
Atlantic will bring a chance for widespread light snow Tuesday 
night.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A mix of sleet, freezing rain, and wet snow will keep a mix of
MVFR and IFR restrictions over the terminals for much of the
overnight period. In addition, a low level jet will create LLWS
conditions, mainly between 03z and 10z. The lowest ceilings and
visibilities will be at KBGM, where ceiling heights will remain
below 1000 feet through early Thursday.

Precipitation will continue through the overnight period and
taper off as light rain showers after midnight when temperatures
warm above freezing. Ceilings and visibilities will slowly rise
by dawn. VFR conditions are expected for most of the afternoon 
when drier air arrives.

West winds will gust around 20 knots on Thursday.


Outlook... 

Thursday night...VFR except at KRME where lake effect snow is 
possible. 

Friday and Saturday...VFR under high pressure.

Saturday night through Monday...Restrictions likely with rain, 
perhaps a brief wintry mix at the start through Sunday. Ceilings
slowly improving on Monday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...BJT/MWG/RRM
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP