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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Gaylord, MI (APX)

FXUS63 KAPX 201445

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1045 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Issued at 1040 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Not much to talk about as strong high pressure centers itself
directly overhead. Mostly sunny skies and light winds will be the
result. Strong diurnal temperature response well underway, with
many areas already punching into the lower 40s. Several more hours
of warming yet to go, and expect plenty of places across interior
northern lower Michigan to make a run into the lower 50s by the
middle of this afternoon.


.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

...Dry wx with a gradual warning trend.

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Large area of strong high pressure and 
dry air remains centered over the heart of the US early this 
morning...resulting in clear skies and dry wx thru the entire 
Mississippi Valley...most of the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley. 
Temps are slowly dropping out of the 30s and into the 20s at this 
hour...on their way down to overnight lows in the upper teens and 
lower 20s. Skies remain clear and winds are stark contrast 
to this time last week.

As we head into today and tonight...little will change as the strong 
surface high center slides overhead. Skies will remain clear over 
the next 24 hours at least...with only some thin cirrus drifting 
overhead. Our gradual warming trend will continue today with 
afternoon highs ranging from the mid to upper 40s in the NW half of 
our CWA to the low to mid 50s in the SE half. Temps will drop back 
into the 20s tonight thanks to clear skies and calm winds.


.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

...True spring-like weather this weekend...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal, although will be monitoring 
rising river levels through the weekend due to snow melt runoff.

Pattern Forecast: Split flow aloft across the western tier of the 
CONUS is expected to be evident at the start of the forecast period 
Saturday with one area of low pressure meandering across the 
central/southern plains and another across Alberta/Saskatchewan. 
Both systems are expected to remain well south/north, respectively, 
of northern Michigan as surface high pressure dominates our weather 
locally through the weekend. 

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Minimal aside from potential 
fog issues and rising rivers due to melting snow runoff.

Little in the way of sensible weather is anticipated across northern 
Michigan through the upcoming weekend as aforementioned surface high 
pressure sits atop the region. A return to near-normal high 
temperatures is expected both Saturday and Sunday with highs topping 
out in the upper 40s nearest the lakeshores to the low-upper 50s 
inland (normals for the third week of April range from 51 at ANJ to 
56 at TVC/HTL).

A good radiational cooling setup Saturday night into Sunday morning 
with light winds/clear skies, combined with snow-covered ground, may 
lend itself to fog potential across a bulk of the area. However, the 
biggest concern through the weekend continued to be snow melt runoff 
and resultant rises in area rivers. As was previously mentioned, the 
Rifle River near Sterling is forecast to continue a slow rise above 
flood stage during the day Sunday while the Manistee River near 
Sherman is forecast to fall half a foot or so short of minor flood 
stage. Either way, the potential will need to be monitored 
through the weekend into next week.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal outside of rising river 

Generally quiet weather is expected to prevail throughout much of 
the extended forecast period with the exception lying around the 
Tuesday/Wednesday time frame as a quick moving wave slides across 
the central plains, perhaps interacting with the aforementioned 
southern wave slowly moving across the southern tier of the CONUS 
this weekend. As a result, mainly low precip (rain) chances return 
to the forecast later Tuesday into Wednesday.

Otherwise, the primary concern continues to revolve around rising 
river levels into next week, which would be exacerbated by any 
liquid precipitation mentioned above.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Solid VFR conditions are expected at all Northern Lower Michigan
TAF sites as high pressure slides over our state. Light/variable
winds will become N/NW AOB 10 kts by midday...and will then become
light/calm after sunset.


Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria today thru the 
weekend as high pressure remains in charge of the wx across the 
Great Lakes region. Dry wx and mainly clear skies are expected... 
with our gradual warming trend continuing thru the weekend and into 
next week.