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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Gaylord, MI (APX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KAPX 231831
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
231 PM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1053 AM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Main issue this morning is the ongoing lake effect rain and the
winds increasing over the marine areas. The rain looks like there
is a lull beginning as some of the rain showers in NW Lower are
progressing south with nothing upstream forming on MRMS. Upstream
in C upper, the 1000-850 mb winds are veering more to the north
and the rain bands are adjusting to this orientation. The HiRes
models show this as well, although based on the radar, the ARW is
overdone on the precipitation. The other thing the models show us,
is the 850-700 mb synoptic moisture is beginning to dry as
expected. So will expect a diminishing of the rain bands through
the next 3-5 hours.

Winds over the nearshore will continue to be in the small craft
criteria, but will expect that winds will begin to diminish a bit,
especially if the latest ARW and NMM models are showing more of a
veering and a slackening of the pressure graident. There is a
chance that the winds will let up sooner than expected. 

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 238 AM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Shortwave energy was digging down the backside of an upper trough, 
resulting in lake enhanced rain showers across much of NW lower and 
eastern upper Michigan. This is behind a cold front that has pressed 
through nrn Michigan. Low level temperatures have obviously reached 
sufficient levels for this to occur. H8 temps are down to -2C or so, 
with 925mb temps at 1-2C. The gradient has tightened up behind the 
front as well, and NW winds were already starting to gust in parts 
of the western CWA. Further upstream, high pressure was centered in 
srn Manitoba with an axis stretched south into the Plains.

The pressure gradient will continue to tighten up through today, 
with low level temperatures continuing to drop to -6C to -8C in CAA. 
While all synoptic forcing will depart early this morning, we will 
have sufficient moisture underneath an inversion between 5-6kft to 
result in some light lake effect rains in NW flow regimes. There 
will be some snow mixed in at interior locations of eastern upper 
and the higher terrain of nrn lower, but with little to no 
accumulation. Inversion heights do not come down too much heading 
into tonight, but some of the better moisture does start to exit 
east. Winds do come more out north and weaken as the aforementioned 
high pressure slides into the western Great Lakes. This will push 
what should be even lighter lake effect, with less coverage, into 
mainly western Chip/Mack counties of eastern upper and the GTV Bay 
region.

Colder today with highs in the lower half of the 40s with middle 40s 
in downsloping areas of NE lower. Lows tonight as the winds drop 
off, into the lower half of the 30s for most areas, upper 20s in 
some interior spots away from the lake effect where there might be 
some clearing. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 238 AM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Synopsis: Tuesday's mid-upper level troughing will continue 
to shift east Tuesday evening with rising heights aloft becoming the 
rule across the western Great Lakes through the midweek time frame. 
Expansive area of high pressure is expected to nose into the region 
Tuesday night, becoming centered overhead while slowly weakening 
during the day Wednesday into Wednesday night. This feature will be 
the driver to our sensible weather before a system ramps up across 
the central plains later Thursday into Friday.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Low temperatures Wednesday 
night.

High pressure becoming situated overhead during the day Wednesday is 
expected to lead to very quiet weather conditions across northern 
Michigan with partly to mostly sunny skies and light winds being the 
rule. Continues to look like nearly ideal radiational cooling 
conditions Wednesday night as much of the guidance suite suggests 
mainly clear skies and light/variable winds. Have bumped lows down a 
few degrees (low-mid 20s) from blended guidance, especially across 
the typically cooler/interior locales...warmer near the Great Lakes 
shorelines.

A similar story anticipated for Thursday with mostly sunny morning 
skies gradually featuring more cloud cover throughout the day. High 
temperatures topping out a handful of degrees warmer than 
Wednesday...ranging through the mid 40s area-wide. While a select 
few guidance members try to squeeze out a few showers across parts 
of northern Michigan late Thursday afternoon, the expectation is 
that lingering deep layer dry air from departing high pressure will 
win out as higher chances for precip hold off until Thursday night 
and especially Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 238 AM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Precipitation chances return to the forecast at various times 
Thursday night into the upcoming weekend as upstream moisture and 
associated shortwave rotate through the upper Midwest. Guidance 
becomes more murky for Saturday and Sunday as it struggles with the 
interaction between system over the Gulf and a deepening northern 
stream cutoff low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Main concern for the TAFs is the lake effect bands of clouds and
rain. So far The rain showers are holding together, but the
expectation is that the rain will (and is starting to) dissipate 
as the drier air to the west begins to push into the region from
the west. The rain bands are aligned along the NNW flow, but are
showing veering to the N, which will push the rain bands to the
areas west of US-131 in NW Lower, keeping the precipitation out of
PLN and APN. By Wednesday morning, the CIGs will be mainly near
TVC and possibly MBL, with light rain/snow showers possible. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018

The pressure gradient has tightened behind the departure of a cold 
front, and will continue to tighten through the day as cold 
advection results in scattered light lake effect rain showers.
Winds pick up through the day and small craft advisories will 
continue for all nearshore waters into tonight. High pressure 
then settles in for Wednesday and Thursday with minimal/no marine 
concerns. 


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EDT tonight for LSZ322.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for LSZ321.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JL
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MG
LONG TERM...MG
AVIATION...JL
MARINE...SMD