Preview of NWS' New Version of Forecast
This preview is not operational and should not be used for support decisions.

Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Amarillo, TX (AMA)

FXUS64 KAMA 192350 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
550 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

For the 00Z TAFs, a low confidence forecast with respect to cold
frontal timing. This particular cold front has already moved thru
much of the area nearly one day sooner than expected. It has 
tracked through KGUY and KDHT. Most computer models suggest the 
cold front may temporarily move back north into Kansas later 
tonight, then surge south again on Tuesday. Have composed the TAFs
with those ideas in mind. Due to low confidence in cold frontal
timing, amendments may become necessary later tonight.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 444 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018/ 


The forecast has shifted from a fire weather approach to perhaps a 
very slight relief to the drought conditions beginning Wednesday.
Well, at least we have a reasonable chance for moisture at this 
time. Thursday has been showing some consistency with 
precipitation that would be measurable, especially the eastern 
half of the forecast area where we are now advertising 30 to 50 
percent chances. Chances continue into Friday and Saturday as 
well. This is somewhat a change from the "norm" recently as these 
chances have been consistent for several days now and have not 
disappeared as they get into the near-term. Could be a welcoming 

Front sagged farther south today than previously forecasted and 
caused a complete bust in temperatures to the north, along with 
other meteorological values. Front also created enough 
convergence in the lower levels where available moisture has given
us a cumulus field across central and northern parts of the 
forecast area. There has been some sprinkles reported across some 
areas and could continue through early evening for mainly 
northern areas. Not much if any accumulation is expected. Front 
should retreat back a little tonight, and will make its full surge
tomorrow. Temperatures and winds could potentially vary widely
again tomorrow depending on the frontal passage. Highs will only 
get into the 30s Wednesday. 

Focus for precipitation will be Wednesday and Thursday due to these 
days having the best chance. Wednesday will be our first shot at 
precipitation. This day will have good mid-level frontogenesis 
along with good isentropic lift. The area with greatest potential
will be far eastern parts of the Panhandles. Lower levels are 
going to be cold, but a small warm nose layer with dry air above 
will be evident, which could lead to precipitation falling as 
sleet to begin the onset of precipitation. Wednesday night gets a
little tricky with freezing rain potential. Left as rain for now 
due to low confidence in lower level temperatures. Another 
similar setup with mid-level frontogenesis and isentropic lift 
will be present Thursday, but Thursday will have a deeper layer of
moisture and hence more precipitable water to work with. As a 
result, Thursday could yield more measurable moisture and has the
best chance for precipitation in general for mainly eastern parts
of the Panhandles. Small chance for precipitation Friday night and
Saturday, but a little leery of these chances given the model 
disparity in the extended. 

Overall, there could be some refinement to precipitation type as we 
get closer, but we may finally get some much needed moisture 
across parts of the forecast area. However, many areas in the 
western half of the forecast area may miss out. 



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for the following 
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Deaf Smith...Oldham...Potter...