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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Amarillo, TX (AMA)

                            
000
FXUS64 KAMA 150514
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1214 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions and southerly winds 10 to 20 knots will prevail at
all three TAF sites through 06Z Monday.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 558 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019/ 

AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the 00Z TAF period. Winds will be
out of the south and southwest 10 to 15 kts. Gust up to 20 kts
will be possible Sunday afternoon between 18Z and 23Z. As far as
sky conditions, only a few to scattered clouds around 25k ft. 

Hoffeditz

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 224 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019/ 

SHORT TERM...

Another warm day across the Panhandles this afternoon with many
locations have temperatures already in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
A shortwave trough across New Mexico has already developed
convection across the high terrain to the west of the Panhandles.
Latest hi-res guidance shows these storms struggling to reach the
Panhandles. If they do by early this evening, the best chance of a
thunderstorm will be in the far NW Panhandles, but confidence is 
low at this time. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies tonight will
allow temperatures to drop into the mid 60s. South to southwest
winds will return tomorrow and under an area of high pressure,
temperatures will rebound into the upper 80s and lower 90s once
again across the region.

Meccariello

LONG TERM...Sunday Night through Friday Night...
A quiet start to the work week as high pressure will slowly shift
east. Low level jet out of the southwest will hold over the 
Panhandles for the majority of the work week. Daytime heating will
allow for stronger winds aloft to mix down. As a result winds 
will be in the 20 to 30 mph range, with higher gusts.

Upper level trof will be over the Pacific Northwest to start the 
work week, but is expected to eject a shortwave across the Idaho, 
Montana area, which will have minimal impact on changing our 
weather pattern. Second trof will dive deeper over the Pacific 
Northwest midweek. This will likely impact the chances of 
precipitation for the end of the work week. Moisture that was more
over the central and western portions of NM will now be over the 
eastern NM and TX Panhandle area. For now just going with slight 
chance pops and low end chance pops towards the end of the 
forecast period. There's still a chance that the end of the work 
week could be dry, as the track of the trof further north could 
put a damper on the storms. Temperatures for the extended will be 
hold in the 80s, with the warmest days on Wednesday and Thursday, 
in which some of the warmest spots will likely touch the lower 
90s. 

Weber

AVIATION... /Issued 1242 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019/
VFR conditions are expected throughout the 18Z TAF period. Winds
will be out of the south and southwest at 10-15 kts with gusts
over 20 kts at times through the day before winds slightly subside
after 00Z Sunday. Besides some sct high clouds, weather 
conditions will remain tranquil through the TAF period.

Meccariello

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

11/7