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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Amarillo, TX (AMA)

FXUS64 KAMA 222342

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
642 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

00Z Issuance...Conditions will mostly be VFR. Towards the end of
the period, the western Panhandles will see some chances for
precip. The ceilings with the precip may drop to MVFR, or vsby
may drop if the rain becomes heavy enough. Lightning is not 
expected. Winds will be wavering between northeasterly and 
southeasterly through the period. 



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 321 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018/ 

High pressure off to the west with a cut-off low across southern
Nevada, and Hurricane Willa just southeast of the Baja Peninsula
will be driving the weather we have for the next few days. The low
is far enough west that we remain on the side of the ridge where 
we continue to have warmer temperatures, just like today. A 
deepening trof over the Great Lakes will have a little bit of 
cooler energy over the Panhandles on Tuesday, thusly the cooler 
highs in the mid 60s. At the same time the cut-off low will become
more of an open trof and looks to steal some of the moisture from
Willa. The chances of rain will start to pick up across the 
western Panhandles in the late afternoon on Tuesday. By Wednesday 
widespread showers will be possible across the Panhandles, with 
much cooler temperatures associated with the trof. 

Wednesday night showers will exit to the east and we have a dry
forecast in store for the rest of the extended. The upper level 
ridge will strengthen over the west and the Great Lakes trof 
diving deeper across the east, will keep warm and dry northwest 
flow in play. Just how warm and dry is still yet to be determined.
The warm air from the west and cool air from the east can have 
the most subtle affects on the temperatures over the Panhandles as
we remain very close to that transition (from warm to cold) area.
Right now mid 60s look good for most of the extended, but 
temperatures could be a bit warmer or cooler depending on that 
transition area. 



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...