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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Amarillo, TX (AMA)

                            
248 
FXUS64 KAMA 150510
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1210 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions are expected at the three TAF sites through 06Z
Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible or likely at
all three TAF sites after about 00Z Thursday. Will mention VCTS
for now with this package and possibly include a PROB30 group with
later TAF issuance. North/northeast to southeast winds 5 to 15 
knots or 10 to 20 knots will prevail through 06Z Thursday at all 
three TAF sites.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 548 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018/ 

AVIATION...
00Z Issuance...VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Storms tonight should avoid the TAF sites. Winds at AMA are
currently westerly but an outflow boundary is heading towards the
site from the northeast and should swing winds out of the
northeast. Storms may start firing tomorrow afternoon, but
confidence of hitting any sites is too low. 

Beat

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 455 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
The final round of showers and tstms across parts of the eastern
and southeastern Texas Panhandle associated with the upper level 
low which is now east and northeast of the forecast area will 
slowly dissipate through the evening hours. Have gone with areal
qualifier wording for this evening utilizing isold to sct pops
across eastern and sern sections, with non mentionable values
elsewhere. 

12Z short and medium range models continue to suggest a return to
some semblance of a WNW to NW flow aloft pattern as an upper 
level ridge of high pressure remains over the southwest states 
while upper level troffing develops across the eastern United 
States. Slgt chc to chc pops are warranted in this flow pattern 
from Wednesday through Tuesday with overall lowest values durg 
the daytimes and highest values evenings and nights. Some
temporary drying may take place Monday into Tuesday if medium
range models verify, with slgt chc pops restricted to wrn zones
durg this time period. 

Andrade 

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

11/24


000
FXUS64 KAMA 150510
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1210 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions are expected at the three TAF sites through 06Z
Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible or likely at
all three TAF sites after about 00Z Thursday. Will mention VCTS
for now with this package and possibly include a PROB30 group with
later TAF issuance. North/northeast to southeast winds 5 to 15 
knots or 10 to 20 knots will prevail through 06Z Thursday at all 
three TAF sites.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 548 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018/ 

AVIATION...
00Z Issuance...VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Storms tonight should avoid the TAF sites. Winds at AMA are
currently westerly but an outflow boundary is heading towards the
site from the northeast and should swing winds out of the
northeast. Storms may start firing tomorrow afternoon, but
confidence of hitting any sites is too low. 

Beat

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 455 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
The final round of showers and tstms across parts of the eastern
and southeastern Texas Panhandle associated with the upper level 
low which is now east and northeast of the forecast area will 
slowly dissipate through the evening hours. Have gone with areal
qualifier wording for this evening utilizing isold to sct pops
across eastern and sern sections, with non mentionable values
elsewhere. 

12Z short and medium range models continue to suggest a return to
some semblance of a WNW to NW flow aloft pattern as an upper 
level ridge of high pressure remains over the southwest states 
while upper level troffing develops across the eastern United 
States. Slgt chc to chc pops are warranted in this flow pattern 
from Wednesday through Tuesday with overall lowest values durg 
the daytimes and highest values evenings and nights. Some
temporary drying may take place Monday into Tuesday if medium
range models verify, with slgt chc pops restricted to wrn zones
durg this time period. 

Andrade 

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

11/24