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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Albany, NY (ALY)

                            
000
FXUS61 KALY 220715
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
315 AM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Fair weather with seasonably cool temperatures are expected for
this weekend. The next chance of rain will be from late Monday 
night through Wednesday night as a cold front approaches from 
the Great Lakes region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
For today, a large ridge of high pressure will build east from the 
Great Lakes region into eastern New York by days end. It will be a 
much cooler day than recent days with highs only in the mid 50s to 
mid 60s. It will also be quite windy through early afternoon with 
winds diminishing by late in the day. Winds will be northwest at 10 
to 20 mph diminishing to less than 5 mph by evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather is expected to continue through much of the short term 
period with rain arriving late Monday night. High pressure will be 
anchored across the region through Monday before sliding east off 
the New England coast Monday night. A warm front will be moving into 
western New York late Monday night bringing some rainfall to the 
region which should hold off until after midnight Monday night. Lows 
tonight and Sunday night will be on the cool side in the upper 30s 
to upper 40s. Highs Sunday and Monday will be in the upper 50s to 
upper 60s. Lows Monday night will be milder as clouds and rain move 
in. Expect low temperatures to be in the 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through the extended period, our region will be situated between a 
strengthening downstream ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean and 
an approaching upper level trough over the Midwest and Great Lakes. 
At the surface, a slow moving frontal system will be making its way 
towards the area through the mid week, with possible waves of low 
pressure tracking along it.  

A warm front looks to approach the area Tuesday, but will likely be 
impeded by a very strong high pressure system departing off the New 
England coast/Canadian Maritimes. With a chilly, dry air mass 
initially in place, wet bulb cooling from the developing rainfall 
Tuesday should keep temps rather cool. Expect highs only in the 50s 
to lower/mid 60s, although the potential for even cooler max temps 
exists. Steadier rain may taper to areas of drizzle later in the day 
or at night. It will also be breezy/windy at times, especially 
across higher terrain areas of the Catskills, Adirondacks, and 
southern Greens/Taconics and Berkshires, where some gusts could 
reach or exceed 35 mph as a strong low level jet translates across 
the region, with H850 winds of 45-55 KT.

The warm front may linger across the region Tuesday night-Wednesday, 
as a cold/occluded front approaches from the west. Additional 
periods of rain or showers are likely, and could be heavy at times. 
Some rumbles of thunder may occur as well, depending on the degree 
of elevated instability. Lows Tuesday night mainly in the 50s/lower 
60s, with highs Wednesday mainly in the mid 60s to lower/mid 70s.

The front should slowly cross the region Wednesday night or early 
Thursday. Behind the boundary, cooler and drier air should move back 
into the area for Thursday afternoon, although it appears to be 
short-lived, as the southwest flow should allow another fast moving 
storm system to head towards the area with more showers by Friday.

Temps should return to seasonable levels for Thursday and Friday 
with valley highs in the upper 60s to near 70 and lows in the 40s 
and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will move across the TAF sites through 08Z/Sat, 
accompanied by scattered rain showers, with greatest 
concentration affecting KPSF. In the wake of the frontal 
passage, high pressure will build across the TAF sites from the 
Great Lakes region Saturday and Saturday night.

Widespread MVFR Cigs with embedded IFR should lift to VFR
between 07Z-09Z/Sat, with VFR conditions then prevailing through
Saturday evening. Vsbys may occasionally dip to MVFR within rain
showers until the front passes.

South to southwest winds at 8-12 KT with gusts of 20-25 KT will
shift into the west/northwest as the front passes, at similar
speeds, although a few gusts could briefly approach 30 KT at
KALB and KPSF (mainly between 06Z-08Z/Sat). During Saturday,
northwest winds at 8-12 KT with gusts of 20-25 KT in the morning
will gradually veer into the north to northeast, and decrease to
5-10 KT during the afternoon. Winds should trend to
light/variable to calm around or shortly after sunset.

Until the front passes, low level wind shear will remain
possible as surface winds remain from the south/southwest at 
8-12 KT, while winds around 2000 FT AGL become west at 30-40 KT.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fair weather with seasonably cool temperatures are expected for this 
weekend. The next chance of rain will be from late Monday night 
through Wednesday night as a cold front approaches from the Great 
Lakes region.

Relative humidity values will drop to 40 to 60 percent this 
afternoon, recover to 70 to 95 percent tonight, and drop to 35 to 55 
percent on Sunday.

Winds will be northwest at 10 to 20 mph today, light and variable 
tonight, and northwest at 5 to 10 mph on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Fair and seasonably cool weather is expected for the weekend 
into early next week. The next chance of rain will be from late
Monday night into Wednesday night. While it is still a ways out
in time there is the potential for 1 to 3 inches of rain to 
fall during that period of time.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including 
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please 
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs 
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...Frugis/KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/11