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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wakefield, VA (AKQ)

                            
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 182325
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
725 PM EDT Thu Oct 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure prevails over the Mid-Atlantic region 
overnight and Friday. A cold front crosses the area Saturday. 
Another Canadian high pressure system builds into the region 
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 725 PM EDT Thursday...

No major changes to the going forecast, with only minor digital
database modifications per latest obs. 1034mb high pressure is 
centered over the eastern Great Lakes/interior northeast and 
continues to building east to the Mid-Atlantic. Clear sky and 
light wind will allow temperatures should drop quickly this 
evening over the next few hours as the wind becomes calm to 
very light under a clear sky, with ideal radiational cooling 
conditions overnight. Forecast lows are in the low/mid 30s for 
the Piedmont, interior coastal plain, and interior MD Ern Shore.
A frost advisory will go into effect late tonight for much of 
central/e-central VA and the MD Ern Shore, mainly for rural 
areas, and away from the immediate coastlines, where the best 
potential for frost is located. Farther SE, patchy frost is 
still possible for interior NE NC, and rural srn/wrn portions 
of the Tidewater. Some typically favored cold spots could have 
a light freeze over the NW Piedmont. Elsewhere, lows should be 
in the upper 30s to low 40s, with mid 40s at the coast in SE 
VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Thursday... 

High pressure gradually slides offshore by Friday aftn. Mostly 
sunny with highs in the low to mid 60s. A cold front approaches 
from the NW Friday evening, and pushes across the region late 
Friday night through midday Saturday, and into Saturday aftn for
the ern third of the area. PoPs are ~60-70% for a period of 
rain across the Piedmont and central VA late Friday night into 
early Saturday morning, then into the Ern Shore, SE VA, and NE 
NC Saturday morning through midday. PoPs then taper to 20-40% in
the aftn for showers over e-central VA, the Ern Shore, and NE 
NC. QPF of 0.25" or less is expected for most of the area, with 
0.25-0.4" for far SE VA/NE NC. Milder Friday night with lows in 
the 50s, with highs in the upper 60s to around 70F Saturday.

A potent nrn stream trough digs across the region Saturday 
night into Sunday. This could result in some lingering SC over 
the Nrn Neck/Ern Shore Saturday night. Otherwise, drier cooler 
air will arrive from the NW. Forecast lows Saturday night range 
from the low 40s NW to the upper 40s/low 50s far SE. Cool, 
mostly sunny, and a breezy NW wind Sunday with highs in the mid 
50s NW to low 60s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Thursday...

After persistent low-level CAA during the day on Sunday, 
~1030mb sfc high pressure settles over the western half of 
Virginia Sunday night. With clear skies and light winds, expect 
a cold night across the area, with temperatures possibly 
approaching a 32F over a few inland locations (most likely over 
the western CWA) early Monday morning. Low temperatures will 
range from the low-mid 30s inland to the 40s along the immediate
coast. 

The area of high pressure quickly moves offshore on Monday. 
This will allow winds to turn back to the south, setting the 
stage for a very modest warm-up early next week. The warm-up 
will be short lived, as low pressure (sfc-aloft) passes to our 
north on Tue/Tue night. This will drag another cold front 
through our area late Tue- Wed. The latest 18/12z suite of 
guidance continues to (strongly) suggest a dry FROPA. Highs in 
the upper 50s-low 60s on Mon will rise into the mid 60s 
NW/around 70 SE on Tue. Morning lows will be in the upper 30s- 
mid 40s on Tue. Behind the front, sfc high pressure moves from 
the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Wed/Thu. This 
setup will likely keep our temperatures below seasonal averages 
from mid-late next week. Forecast highs on Wed are in the low- 
mid 60s, cooling to the mid 50s-low 60s on Thu. Rain chances 
potentially make a return to the area Thursday night into next 
weekend, as models are hinting at the development of low 
pressure off the southeast coast.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 725 PM EDT Thursday...

Cool continental high pressure over the Ohio Valley continues 
to spill east over the region. This will bring continued clear 
sky/light winds and VFR conditions across area terminals through
the 00z TAF period. High pressure slides offshore Friday with a
SW wind of 5-10kt developing later in the morning through the 
aftn. Mostly sunny with some increasing high clouds later in the
aftn.

Outlook: Another cold front approaches from the NW Friday 
evening and moves through the area late Friday night into 
Saturday. This will bring a period of mainly light rain, along 
with the potential for a period of lower cigs/vsby. Breezy 
conditions are expected by Sunday in a NW wind behind the cold 
front. High pressure returns Monday and slides offshore Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 PM EDT Thursday...

Latest analysis shows high pressure building across the region 
and thus a decreasing gradient. As a result, winds have 
continued to diminish through the afternoon hours thus Small 
Craft Advisories for the Bay have been cancelled. A rogue gust 
to 20 knots may still be possible at elevated sites through the 
late afternoon, but the trend is for diminishing winds. For the 
coastal waters, SCAs remain in effect for the southern waters 
mainly due to seas in excess of 5 feet. As with the winds, seas 
will also decrease through the afternoon and evening hours. 
Expect N winds around 5-15 knots tonight into Friday before 
becoming S later in the afternoon and evening. Seas will 
diminish to 2 to 3 feet and waves 1 to 2 feet. 

High pressure eventually shifts offshore as we head into Friday
evening and overnight. The flow will become SSW overnight 
Friday into Saturday morning, 15 to 25 knots, and SCAs will 
likely be needed for at least the Bay. The next cold front 
crosses the waters Saturday night into Sunday, bringing with it 
a surge of NW winds of 15 to 25 knots with gusts potentially in 
excess of 30 knots. Sunday morning will need to be watched 
closely as gale gusts may be possible over the coastal waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 725 PM EDT Thursday...

River flood warning has been lowered for the Appomattox at 
Matoaca, but still continue on for the Nottoway River at 
Sebrell. See FLSAKQ for site-specific details.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for MDZ021>024.
NC...None.
VA...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for VAZ048-060>062-
     064>069-075>083-085-087>089-092-509>522.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/TMG
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/TMG
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...AJZ/MAM
MARINE...AJB
HYDROLOGY...