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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wakefield, VA (AKQ)

FXUS61 KAKQ 201536

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1136 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

High pressure will build into and over the region through Sunday.
Low pressure tracks from the Gulf Coast states northeast up along
the East Coast Monday through Wednesday.


As of 1136 AM EDT Friday...

Nudged Dewpoints/RH down for the aftn per latest obs and incoming
MET guidance from 12z/FRI. Latest sfc analysis shows a cold front
pushing well offshore with ~1032 mb high pressure building east
from the Upr Midwest. Gusty NW winds still expected through early
aftn, mid aftn near the coast...before CAA weakens. Temps will 
average ~10 degrees below normal...highs ranging from the mid 
50s east to low 60s west.

Clear and cold again tonight with lows ranging fm the mid 30s 
to arnd 40. No frost/freeze headlines necessary.


As of 350 AM EDT Friday...

Mostly sunny on Sat with high pressure building in from the NW,
and N or NE winds 10 kt or less. High temps range fm the upper 
50s/near 60 at the coast to the mid 60s inland.

Mostly clear to partly cloudy and not as cold Sat night, with
lows mainly in the lower 40s. Partly sunny on Sun with highs 
mainly ranging thru the 60s.


As of 500 PM EDT Thursday...

The medium range period will begin with a slow moving upper low
tracking east from the lower MS Valley to the TN Valley Sun 
night through early Tue. Upper ridging will be in place across
the mid-Atlc through mon night with strong sfc high pressure
centered over the NE CONUS, ridging south to off the Delmarva. 
While some mid/high clouds may affect the local area Sun
night/Mon, conditions should remain dry with the possible
exception of the far SW counties where a 20% PoP will be
maintained Mon aftn/Mon evening. Expect below average 
temperatures with lows Sun night ranging from the upper 30s to
mid 40s and highs Mon 60-65 F most places. 

By Tue, consensus between the 19/12Z models is for the upper low
to slowly weaken to an open wave while moving into the SE
CONUS/southern Appalachians. Sfc low pressure along the Gulf
coast is progged to move NE up through the SE coastal plain
while sfc high pressure retreats well off the NE/mid-Atlc
coasts. Still some model timing and strength differences so 
with the uncertainty, kept PoPs around 40% to 50% for the bulk 
of the CWA, genly highest Tue and Tue night. Mainly cloudy so 
not as cold Mon night with lows in the 40s to lower 50s and 
highs Tue mid 60s SE to around 60 NW (potentially could be 
cooler than this if it rains all day). Will keep 30-40% chance 
showers Wed and 20% thu as the eventual evolution of the sfc low
shows quite a bit of disagreement amongst the models by this 
timeframe. Partly/mostly cloudy Wed and thu with highs warming a
bit to 65-70 F and lows mainly 50-55 F.


As of 630 AM EDT Friday...
VFR through the 12Z TAF period. Northwest winds will slowly 
diminish today as high pressure builds back into the region. 
Otws, SKC and dry wx today and tonight.

Outlook: VFR conditions will continue through Sun, with high
pressure over the region. A disturbance approaches the region 
late Monday and Tuesday bringing the next chance for sub-VFR 


As of 350 AM EDT Friday...

CAA will wane this morning with a NW wind of 15-25kt diminishing
to aob 15kt by this aftn. Gale flags for the Bay/ocean S of 
Cape Charles have expired and been replaced with SCA flags. SCAs
for the Rivers continue through 11z and 14z for the remaining 
marine zones. Seas/waves of 4-7ft/2-4ft will gradually subside 
through the morning. High pressure builds in from the NW this 
aftn into tonight. A secondary surge is expected later tonight, 
but this surge should generally be sub-SCA. High pressure will 
build over the region Saturday and Sunday resulting in benign 
marine conditions. High pressure pushes off the Srn New England 
coast early next week as low pressure pushes off the Southeast 
coast. This will result in increasing onshore flow. An E wind is
expected to reach 10-15kt by Monday, and then 15-25kt by Monday
night/Tuesday/Tuesday night. Onshore flow will result in seas 
building to 6-10ft by Tuesday/Tuesday night, with 4-5ft waves in
the Mouth of the Bay. Broad low pressure crosses the region 
Wednesday with the wind becoming NW in the wake of the low.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for