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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wakefield, VA (AKQ)

FXUS61 KAKQ 122053

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
353 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

A complex area of low pressure pushes across the Mid-Atlantic 
region tonight into early Saturday. High pressure builds in from
the northwest Saturday night through Sunday...with a return to 
colder weather for the latter half of the weekend through the 
middle of next week.


Latest sfc analysis continues to show the Arctic cold front, as
it trundles east across the eastern Ohio and TN River valleys 
this afternoon. Mild to warm temperatures in the warm sector out
ahead of the boundary on a stout Sly wind. SBY has already tied
its record high, with ECG establishing a new record. Each of 
the remaining sites are close, but appear as if they may fall 
just short. See climate section below.

Regional radar mosaic showing Sct/numerous showers moving back
in to the region (along/e of I-95) this afternoon, with
additional, more widespread showers pushing in late this evening
and overnight. Warm air over cooler ocean waters bringing
lingering areas of fog across coastal E VA/NE NC and lower MD 
Eastern shore this aftn...with VSBY 1-3 miles on average along 
the immediate coast. Expect another round of locally dense fog 
eastern 1/3 of the area late tonight as showers taper off late.

Rain chances ramp back up once again through tonight as upper 
shortwave over the deep south ejects northeast toward the local 
area, as the associated sfc low tracks into the region from the
W-SW. This feature will be pushing the cold front across the 
local area late tonight into Saturday morning, with temperatures
falling off only slightly toward dawn. 

Meager low-level lapse rates and CAPE will be a limiting factor
to overall convective potential. However, RAP/HRRR each depict 
40-50kt LLJ lifting across NE NC/SE VA zones now through early 
evening. HRRR/RAP both key into some localized llvl convergence 
boundaries after 6-7pm this evening, which wl likely portend to 
a few gusty showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder. We 
have carried over likely to categorical prob for SHRAs 
tonight...w/ a round of +RA likely this evening. Remaining mild 
for much of tonight...w/ early morning lows to range from the 
l40s NW to the l50s SE.


Sfc cold front slides off the coast Sat morning...resulting in 
winds veering around to the NNW. Quasi-downslope flow will 
scour out most of the showers by Saturday afternoon, bringing 
some partial clearing. However, expect more clouds than sun once
again on average underneath the upper trough. Expect significant
post-frontal low level CAA to wait until late in the day due to
the primary upper trough being slow to cross the region. Highs 
early in the day range from the l-m40s far NW to the m50s 
SE...then temperatures to remain steady or slowly fall through 
the afternoon.

Upper trough axis crosses the area late Saturday night into 
Sunday morning, with stronger surge of CAA. Lows Sat night
mainly ranging through the 20s. Dry/cold wx Sunday, as ~1040mb
arctic high pressure builds from the Upper Midwest toward the
eastern Lakes/interior northeast Sunday, briefly sliding over
the area into Monday. Despite increasing amounts of 
sunshine...highs will only be in the l-m30s on Sunday, warming
slightly on Monday ahead of reinforcing shot of Arctic air into
the middle of next week.


Low confidence forecast beyond Monday as 12z/11 suite of models
are having a difficult time in resolving differences wrt 
handling of a strong upper trough/closed low digging across the 
Great Lakes/Northeast next week. Will lean toward a blend of the
12z GFS/GEFS/CMC which all seem to be in reasonable agreement 
with the aforementioned trough/closed low pivoting SE to a 
centralized position over Lake Erie by 12z Tues. From there, 
this feature slowly lifts NE into New England by 12z Thurs. In 
doing so, it will force a cold front through the local area on 
Tues with high pressure returning next Wed/Thu. What remains to 
be seen as whether or not the front produces any pcpn as it 
passes on Tues, as it would probably be cold enough aloft to 
generate some snow showers (at least NE of the I-64 corridor). 
Have placed some low PoPs in these areas. Otherwise, next week 
is looking dry and chilly. Highs Monday from the mid 30s N to 
low 40s S. Highs Tuesday from the mid 30s N to the mid 40s 
south. Highs next Wed/Thu in the 30s. Lows through the period 
primarily in the teens and 20s.


Expected break in the widespread pcpn coming to an end across 
terminals late this aftn. Still noting some patchy fog from 
time to time, especially along coastal terminals. MVFR (LCL IFR 
along Atlantic coast) will be deteriorating once again this 
evening, with widespread IFR conditions expected late this 
evening (CIG/VSY) and overnight. Sfc low pres and a cold front 
push across the region from the W-SW late tonight/early 

Outlook: SHRAs taper off Sat morning...w/improving CIGS Sat 
aftn as drier air arrives from the NW Sat aftn/night through 
Sun. High pres locates W of the region by Sunday and Monday, 
with mainly VFR conditions expected..


Marine Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 6 PM EST for all 
the waters minus the upper James. Cams/sfc obs continue to show 
visibilities under 1 nm nearshore. Advisory will most likely 
need to be extended by the evening shift for at least the Upper
Bay and Upper Coastal Zones.

Strong cold front is approaching the waters from the west which will 
allow for the potential for showers and gusty winds through the 
night. South winds will range from mainly 15 to 25 knots ahead of 
the cold front. There may be a brief lull in the winds over the 
Bay/Lower James this evening/overnight before the winds pick up 
again. The front crosses the waters around 12Z Saturday and winds 
turn to the northwest behind the front. Winds will remain gusty 
behind the front as much colder air works into the area, high end 
SCA conditions are expected Saturday. SCA may also be needed for the 
Rivers, but decided to hold off at this time and let the night shift 
reevaluate. Seas remain elevated at or above 5 feet over the coastal 
zones through early Monday morning. 

Canadian high pressure builds into the region early next week 
allowing for diminishing winds and seas. Another low pressure system 
may impact the waters by mid-week, bringing a return to SCA 


Record high temperatures today (Jan 12)

RIC 71/2005 (High of 70 through 20z)
ORF 75/1890 (73 as of 20z)
SBY 67/2017 (*Rec High tied as of 20z)
ECG 72/2017 (*New Rec High of 73 as of 20z)


MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ630>636-
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for ANZ630>634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Monday for ANZ650-652-654-