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Prognostic Meteorological Discussion (PMD)

Issued by National Weather Service (NWS)

                            
000
FXAK02 KWNH 242001
PMDAK 

Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Valid 12Z Wed Aug 28 2019 - 12Z Sun Sep 01 2019

Upper level ridging is expected to push across the Alaska
Panhandle and western Canada during the latter half of next week,
which would allow southeastern Alaska to enter a dry period into
next weekend.  Meanwhile, a relatively weak occluded cyclone
should spread rain across the Aleutians from west to east through
the end of next week before dissipating over southwestern Alaska
over the weekend.  The next significant occluded cyclone will be
in the offing for western and central Aleutians next weekend as
the center mostly likely tracks south of the island chain.  An
arctic vortex will bring a cooling trend for northern Alaska as it
pushes a front farther south into central Alaska by the weekend. 
Colder than normal morning temperatures and near normal afternoon
temperatures can be expected.

The WPC blend for the pressure and wind fields today is a
consensus of the 00Z ECMWF, 06Z and 12Z GFS, coupled more with
their ensemble means as forecast hour increases.  The temperature
and PoP grids were prepared using the 12Z ECMWF, 06Z and 12Z GFS,
together with the 12Z GEFS mean.

Kong


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html

$$