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Prognostic Meteorological Discussion (PMD)

Issued by National Weather Service (NWS)

                            
000
FXAK02 KWNH 162012
PMDAK 

Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
312 PM EST Wed Jan 16 2019

Valid 12Z Sun Jan 20 2019 - 12Z Thu Jan 24 2019

The global guidance and the ensemble means continue to depict a
transition out of a blocky pattern through the extended period,
but remain uncertain on the placement and strength of lows and
associated front crossing the Gulf. There is a fairly good
consensus that the Southeast and South-Central Alaska will be in a
fairly wet pattern.  

The ECWMF and CMC have handling the synoptic evolution the best
amongst the global guidance for days now. These two models
continue to depict the ridge over northern Alaska pushing
northward as a low tracks from northwest Canada westward into
northern Alaska. A heavier weighting of those two were used to
maintain continuity, although included a little bit of the
GFS/GFSP to the mix as it was starting to be within the realm of
clustering.

Campbell


WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can be found at:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html

$$