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Prognostic Meteorological Discussion (PMD)

Issued by National Weather Service (NWS)

                            
000
FXAK02 KWNH 212005
PMDAK 

Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019

Valid 12Z Mon Mar 25 2019 - 12Z Fri Mar 29 2019

A deep system will lift northward through the Bering Sea Mon-Tue
next week as upper ridging builds over the eastern interior. The
models/ensembles were gradually clustering closer together with
the lead Bering system to start the forecast period with a central
pressure likely below 960mb. Strong southwest to south winds
(40-50kts) will push across the Aleutians and through the central
Bering, decreasing toward the western coastal areas. This will
bring in milder air through much of the state west of 150W or so
with precipitation focused mostly across the
Aleutians/AkPen/southwestern areas northward across the Seward
peninsula and eastward to the Kenai peninsula. Amounts will
generally be modest for southern coastal areas but comparatively
higher for the typically much drier northwestern areas (Nome to
Kotzebue). Blend of the 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS sufficed to start.

For Wed-Thu, favored the 00Z ECMWF over the 12Z GFS as the ECMWF
and its ensemble mean showed a stronger upper high over the
AK/Yukon border compared to the GFS and GEFS mean. This would
likely help prevent the next system from pushing eastward through
the Bering as high pressure dominates most of the interior next
Thu/Fri.


Fracasso


Bullet points from the WPC Days 3-7 Hazards chart can be found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

- High winds across portions of mainland Alaska, Sun, Mar 24.
- High winds across portions of the Aleutians, Mon, Mar 25.


WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html

$$