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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Juneau, AK (AJK)

FXAK67 PAJK 152257

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
257 PM AKDT Sun Jul 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...According to current WV satellite imagery, we've got
quite a complex system playing into the weather we're experiencing 
today and that will continue into tomorrow. A shortwave over the 
NE gulf coast is providing us with our current shot of 
precipitation across the panhandle, and another shortwave is 
beginning to develop over the west-central gulf. A robust jet 
aloft is helping to bring in the moisture needed for precipitation
across the area, and there is plenty of lift available from the 
shortwave over the NE Gulf Coast for maintaining ongoing 
precipitation. With the stronger jet streak being on the east side
of the shortwave, we'll continue to see this feature weaken. Rain
will continue through tonight before tapering off Monday for many
locations. Areas closer to the Coast Range will likely see some 
upslope flow, which may allow precipitation to linger, namely the
Juneau, Petersburg and Wrangell, and Misty Fjords areas. Through 
the tonight period, winds will also be rather brisk for many 
locations with 15 to 25 kt winds through most inner channel marine

By Monday afternoon, our next shortwave feature will have made 
its way from the western gulf into the eastern gulf, impacting the
southern panhandle by tomorrow night. There is a lot of 
uncertainty regarding the timing and strength of this developing 
low, so we've opted to keep precipitation chances at likely for 
the locations we think will be impacted the most. As new model 
data comes in, we'll update the forecast accordingly. Rain 
chances are expected to remain through Tuesday, when we finally 
make the transition to more of an isolated to scattered showers 
regime. Winds should continue to diminish through tomorrow, but 
once our developing low makes its way northeast into the southern 
panhandle, we'll see winds pick back up again here. Wind speeds
will most likely be in the 15 to 20 kt range for Clarence Strait
to Frederick Sound.

Temperatures through the short term period, will be strongly
effected by cloud cover and precipitation, leading to less of a
diurnal trend. Temperatures will range from the low 50s overnight
to the low 60s during the day.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday/ As of 10 pm Saturday. The
story for the long term is, one system moves out while another 
moves in. 

Tuesday night should be the slow start to diminishing showers and
clouds for all but the southern Panhandle. Models are indicating 
a more wet solution to Wednesday, but chose to downplay the 
change for now. Thursday is looking to hold steady for the weak 
ridge to keep the drier conditions around. Then by Friday things 
start to move over from the west bringing with it clouds and a 
chance of rain that should continue through the weekend. 

To sum up the weather patterns from Tuesday through Sunday in one
word; weak. With this weak pattern, winds will generally be 15 kt
or less. Lynn Canal will pick up to 20 kt on and off through the 
week given weak ridging, while a band of stronger winds up to 25 
kt sweeps across the northern gulf late in the period.

Made very minor change to temperatures, mainly on Tuesday. Kept
with the warming trend through the week and then cooling Friday
and the weekend.

The ECMWF, GFS and WPC were the trio of models that weighted in
the updates.


.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ052. 
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-031>033-042-043-051-053. 
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ022-041. 




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