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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Fairbanks, AK (AFG)

FXAK69 PAFG 121407

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
607 AM AKDT Sun Aug 12 2018


Synopsis...Broad troughing will encompass much of the state
through the next several days as the remnants of Shanshan move
inland. This will bring wetter conditions across the West Coast
and the Interior, with locally heavy rainfall possible. Winds will
strengthen across the West Coast and portions of the Western
Interior as the low moves inland. Strong southerly chinook winds
are expected to develop today and continue into Monday across the
Alaska Range.

Models...00Z model runs overall initialized well against the
12/06Z surface analysis, with the exception of the remnants of
Shanshan, where models were all around 4 mb too weak. Models are 
in good agreement through 24 hours, but the agreement is very 
short-lived with large differences appearing 24 to 48 hours out. 
The overall picture they paint is similar, with wet conditions 
continuing and colder advecting in from the north, but location 
and movement of the stacked 540 mb low over the Gulf of Anadyr and
subsequently the low over the Western Interior begin to differ 
significantly. ECMWF becomes the slowest moving the stacked low 
with the GFS being the fastest.

Aloft...A broad long wave trough remains over the Bering Sea 
today containing a 540 dam low over the Gulf of Anadyr. The 538
dam low associated with the remnants of Shanshan are located 100
NM NE of Akutan. A 588 dam center of high pressure is over the
North Pacific extending inland over the Interior. A 527 dam low is
located 500 NM NE of Demarcation Point, while broad ridging over
Siberia stretches west and over the western Beaufort Sea.

The 527 dam low 500 NM NE of Demarcation Point will slowly slide
southwest through the next several days, maintaining upper level
troughiness across the eastern Arctic Coast and north slope. 
Several shortwaves will rotate through the flow as ridging builds 
in across the western Arctic Coast.

The 538 dam center (remnants of Shanshan) will begin moving 
onshore the Yukon Delta by this afternoon and will slowly move
north and weaken through the day Monday, while the stacked low
moves south and reemerges in the Bering Sea. During the day
Tuesday, the low over the Bering Sea will move to the southeast
while the remnants of Shanshan slowly meander across the
western/southwestern Interior.

Surface...This morning the remnants of Shanshan appear as a 973 mb
low located 100 NM NE of Akutan. There is a 1008 mb low located
400 NM N of Prudhoe Bay. A weather front extends from Brevig
Mission to Anaktuvuk to Arctic Village. Another weather front
extends across the Gulf of Anadyr to Wainwright to Prudhoe Bay to
Banks Island. A 1032 mb ridge is located over the North Pacific,
with an axis extending north to Glennallen and Paxson. Over the
East Siberian Sea there is a 1024 mb high with an axis extending
into the high Arctic.

The low over the Bering Sea (remnants of Shanshan) will weaken to
980 mb and be centered SW of Bethel by 4 pm today. As the low 
continues to move inland overnight, it will weaken to 986 mb by 4
am Monday and be centered near Marshall. The low moves very 
slowly during the day Monday and by 4 pm is a 992 mb low located 
near Anvik. By Tuesday at 4 pm, the low has weakened to 1004 mb 
and is stretched from McGrath to Minchumina. As the low moves 
inland, it will push the ridge over the North Pacific southeast 
away from the mainland Alaska. Leeside troughing north of the 
Alaska Range will deepen, and strong southerly chinook flow will 
develop across the Alaska Range today into Monday. A frontal 
boundary will stall out over the Interior.

The center of the high over the East Siberian Sea with the axis
extending north and east from it will remain stationary, but the
axis will slide south today and tonight, pushing the low N of
Prudhoe Bay east and south to be 150 NM NE of Demarcation Point by
Monday morning and inland over the Yukon Territories by late
morning Monday. A weather front will move across the Arctic Coast,
with an area of high pressure building in behind it.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Areas of fog and stratus will
continue across the eastern Arctic Coast. Afternoon temperatures
in the upper 30s to 40s along the coast today, with highs in the 
50s to lower 60s inland. A weather front will move across the 
Arctic Coast Monday bringing cooler temperatures and isolated to 
scattered rain and snow showers.

West Coast and Western Interior...Generally wet conditions
expected to continue as the remnants of Shanshan move across.
Moisture will surge across the coast, bringing periods of heavy
rainfall. Widespread rainfall accumulations of 1 inch expected,
with isolated higher amounts in upslope areas. A Wind Advisory
remains in effect today through early monday morning for strong
southeasterly winds in zone 227. Northerly winds will increase to
30 to 40 mph during the afternoon today through the Bering Strait
and may produce high surf along the north facing coasts of St
Lawrence Island. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for zone
213 from this afternoon through Tuesday morning. Strong wind
headline has been added to zone 207 for areas near Point Hope.

Central and Eastern Interior...As the remnants of Shanshan move
eastward, strong southerly chinook winds are expected to develop
today for the passes in the Alaska Range and continue into Monday
morning. High Wind Warnings remain in effect for zones 223, 225,
and 226. Strong southwesterly winds with gusts to 40 mph are 
expected to develop west of Tok this evening and continue through 
the day Monday and a Wind Advisory has been issued for zone 224 to
address this. Rain chances increase over the next several days
with widespread showers likely Monday and Tuesday. Today and
tonight, rainfall from Fairbanks south will be more limited due to
being shadowed out from downsloping. Ridging aloft will bring
warmer temperatures today with highs in mid 60s to around 70s.
Cooler temperatures expected on Monday, as cloud cover increases
as does shower activity.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...High Surf Advisory remains
in effect through Tuesday morning for the north facing coasts of
St Lawrence Island, Little Diomede, and Wales. Waves and surf will
wash up to the top of the beach.


.FIRE WEATHER...Fire weather activity will remain low through at
least mid-week. RH values are expected to remain above 40 percent
for most of the area, with the exception of the Yukon Flats. Some
of the Yukon Flats may see RH values fall into the upper 30s this
afternoon. Strong southerly chinook winds expected to develop
along the Alaska Range today and continue through Monday morning.
For the latest information go to www.weather.gov/arh/fire.


.HYDROLOGY...Flood Advisory continues for Mile 6 Tetlin Rd with high 
water likely through mid-week. Expecting 1 to 2 inches of rainfall 
across much of the Interior through mid week. Expect rises in 
river levels across the Interior this week with the rainfall. For 
the latest information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.


Flood Advisory for AK224.

Wind Advisory for AKZ224-AKZ227.

High Surf Advisory for AKZ213.

High Wind Warning for AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.