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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Fairbanks, AK (AFG)

                            
102 
FXAK69 PAFG 122206
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
206 PM AKDT Sun Aug 12 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A combination of strong southerly Chinook Winds over the Alaska
Range, strong northerly winds with high surf concerns over the
Bering Strait and Saint Lawrence Island and locally heavy rain 
associated with the remnants of Shanshan will be the main
highlights over the next 36 to 48 hours. Model solution agreement
with the 12/12Z model suite is short lived and only out to 48
hours, especially with the handling of the remnants of Shanshan.
Model solutions quickly diverge after 48 hours with the strength 
and track of individual lows; however, there is a general 
consensus that broad troughing (mainly aloft) will persist over 
Northern Alaska through the forecast period. 

Aloft...At 500 mb, a 537 dam low (remnants of Shanshan) over 
Kuskokwim Bay will gradually move north through Monday morning to 
become centered over Marshall in the Lower Yukon Valley and then 
will gradually move east towards the western Alaska Range and 
weaken through Tuesday morning. A 540 dam low off the Chukotka 
coast will move south and be over the Pribilofs by Monday evening,
then continue south over Port Moller by Tuesday morning, and then
into the western Gulf of Alaska by Tuesday evening. Meanwhile, 
broad troughing will come to encompass the Northern Alaska in its 
entirety, pushing the ridge east into western Canada by Monday 
morning. This broad troughing will persist into late Wednesday. A 
528 dam low over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago will shift east 
to be 180 miles east of Banks Island with a shortwave rotating 
south over the eastern Arctic Coast Monday morning. This shortwave
will push south to be over the Brooks Range Monday night with 
colder 850 mb temperatures of 0C to -7C advecting south coincident
with the shortwave. The shortwave will trek south into the 
Southwest, while the main low retreats east back into the Canadian
Arctic Archipelago by Wednesday morning. A strong upper level low
over the New Siberian Islands Tuesday evening will quickly move 
east towards the western Arctic Coast and Chukchi Sea through 
Wednesday night. 

West Coast and Western Interior...Unsettled and showery conditions
will persist across the area as the remnants of Shanshan move over
the area. An additional 0.25" to 1.00" of rainfall is possible
through Tuesday morning with the heaviest amounts over the Yukon
River and the Upper Kuskokwim Valley. A wind advisory remains in
effect for zone 227 where southerly Chinook winds will persist
into the evening and then dissipate after midnight. Over the
Chukchi and Bering Seas as well as the Bering Strait, northerly 
winds will steadily increase through this evening with sustained
winds between 25 and 40 mph and gusts up to 55 mph. These strong
northerly winds may produce high surf conditions along the north
facing coasts of Diomede and St Lawrence Island where a high surf
advisory remains in effect through Tuesday morning. Strong wind
headlines have been added to zones 207 for near Point Hope and 
213. Temperatures will gradually cool over the next few days as
an area of cooler 850 mb temperatures moves south over the area.

Eastern and Central Interior...Strong southerly chinook winds in
the Alaska Range will persist and peak later this evening before
dissipating gradually into Monday morning. Multiple RAWS sites 
within the Alaska Range have already reported wind gusts in excess
of 60 mph as well as gusts to around 50 mph at several sites near
Fort Greely in zone 223. High Wind Warnings in effect for zones
223, 225, and 226 are in good shape. For zone 224 west of Tok
along the Alaska Highway where a Wind Advisory is in effect
starting this evening, a NAM cross section shows that a 35 to 40
mph jet will descent over the area and will produce gusty winds
this evening and into tonight. While the Chinook is ongoing,
the southern Interior will be downsloped, but as the Chinook
dissipates Monday, chances for precipitation will increase with
widespread showers likely by Monday evening and night. Rain
amounts will generally be between 0.50" to 1.00" with the highest
amounts in the favored upslope areas through Tuesday afternoon.
Temperatures will be warm, in the 60s to around 70 in the southern
Interior, through Monday and then will cool by 5 to 10 degrees for
Tuesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Stratus and fog will persist along
the coast this evening and then push south and inland over the
coastal plains tonight. Both MOS guidance and the AK-HRRR indicate
that dense fog is likely again for Barrow between 13/12Z and
13/18Z with other coastal areas seeing areas of fog. A southward
moving arctic front will approach the coast tonight and then move
over the Arctic Coast and inland tomorrow. This front will bring
slightly cooler temperatures and flurries as it moves south 
Monday and Monday night. Winds will remain north to northwest over
the next couple of days with the strongest winds around 30 mph west
of Icy Cape through late Monday evening. 

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather activity will remain low through at
least mid-week. RH values are expected to remain above 40 percent
for most of the area, with the exception of the Yukon Flats where
values will be in the upper 30s this afternoon and then rebound
Tuesday. Strong southerly chinook winds will persist through 
Monday morning and then will weaken. For the latest information 
go to www.weather.gov/arh/fire.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Flood Advisory for Mile 6 Tetlin Road has been
cancelled. High water will gradually decrease over the next couple
of days. An additional 0.50" to 1.00" of rainfall across much of 
the Interior over the next few days. Expect rises in river levels
across the Interior this week with the rainfall. For the latest 
information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ224-AKZ227.

High Surf Advisory for AKZ213.

High Wind Warning for AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

LTH AUG 18