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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Fairbanks, AK (AFG)

                            
544 
FXAK69 PAFG 242009
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1209 PM AKDT Thu May 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Upper level troughing will persist over the 
Southeast Interior through Friday. The 521 dam low over the 
Southern Bering Sea will cross over into the Gulf of Alaska 
Friday morning and weaken to 530 dam south of Kodiak Friday
evening. This low will continue to track to the east through
the weekend. Weak high pressure will build over the Bering
strait Friday into Saturday. Also upper level ridging will 
persist over the Arctic through the weekend. There is some model 
divergence by next week but weak ridging may build over the 
Interior while the west coast remains unsettled. Near normal 
temperatures expected through this weekend.

Surface...High pressure persists over the Arctic with a 1026 mb 
center 400 nm north of Prudhoe Bay and high pressure pushing 
south over MacKenzie Bay and west to the New Siberian Islands. 
A weak front from Mcgrath to Fairbanks to Eagle will push
to the northwest slowly today before weakening. Weak low pressure
will persist over the Interior through the weekend.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus, low ceilings, fog and
flurries will continue over the the North Slope today and Friday.
Current observations continue to indicate LIFR ceilings with
conditions expected to continue through Friday with only brief
periods of IFR ceilings. Northeast to east winds at 15 to 30 mph
will continue through Friday. Temperatures will remain steady.

Central and Eastern Interior...Weak weather front over
the central Interior has brought rain and cooler temperatures 
which has stabilized the Middle Tanana Valley this morning. Not 
expecting thunderstorms to form around Fairbanks due to the cloud 
coverage. There still may be some isolated thunderstorms from 
Galena to Tanana to Eagle and possible over the hills north of 
Fairbanks. Possibility of thunderstorms will move slightly 
northward from Galena to Bettles down to Eagle on Friday. A
chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue into weekend. 
Scattered to numerous showers will continue over the eastern 
Interior today and Friday. Rivers remain high, see below for 
details. Winds generally light. Temperatures slightly cooler with 
cloudy conditions the next 24 hours. Near normal 
temperatures expected through this weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...Dense fog in areas of Kotzebue 
Sound will continue through late morning Thursday. Expect isolated
to scattered showers in the Middle Yukon and Upper Kuskokwim 
Valleys today with isolated thunderstorms from Galena south to 
near Marshall. Possibility of thunderstorms will move slightly 
northward from Galena to Bettles down to Eagle on Friday. Weak
high pressure will build over the Bering strait Friday into
Saturday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

FIRE WEATHER...
A weather front has brought a decent amount of wetting rain
to the Middle Tanana Valley today. Not expecting thunderstorms to
form around Fairbanks due to the cloud coverage. There still may 
be some isolated thunderstorms from Galena to Tanana to Eagle and 
possible over the hills north of Fairbanks. Possibility of 
thunderstorms will move slightly northward from Galena to Bettles 
down to Eagle on Friday. A chance of showers and thunderstorms 
will continue into weekend. Minimum Relative Humidity values are 
expected to remain above 30 percent, with excellent overnight 
recovery in most locations. For the latest Fire Weather 
information go to www.weather.gov/arh/fire.

HYDROLOGY...
Upper Chena River continues to run near minor Flood Stage but is 
not expected to go above at this time. A weather front has stalled over the Interior and will persist 
across the Middle Tanana Vallay and will persist into Thursday 
afternoon before dissipating. This front will bring 0.25 to 0.50 
inches of rain to the Chena, Salcha, Goodpaster, Fortymile, 
Johnson, and Robertson River Basins. It will also bring lesser 
amounts of rain to the Chatanika, and Birch Creek drainages. 
Numerous showers will continue Friday into Saturday for the 
Eastern Interior. Additional amounts of rain for the Eastern 
Interior of 0.25 to 0.50 inches with locally higher amounts in 
areas with heavy downpours. Lesser amounts of rain expected over 
the Middle Tanana Valley Friday and Saturday. For the latest 
breakup and flooding information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

JK MAY 18