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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Fairbanks, AK (AFG)

                            
982 
FXAK69 PAFG 182328 CCA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
328 PM AKDT Tue Sep 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A somewhat unsettled pattern is expected for much of the week
across area as a weather system moves from west to east across 
the state. Gusty easterly winds are expected for next few days 
along the eastern Beaufort Sea coast. The models are in generally 
good with the overall synoptic scale features out through Friday 
and are in much better agreement than yesterday with the handling
of the low that will move east across the state. 

Aloft, at 500 mb, a 560 dam ridge currently stretches from the
central Chukchi Sea to Utqiagvik to Eagle wile a 546 dam low is
situated just north of the Chukotsk Peninsula. This low will move
to Kotzebue sound by Wednesday morning and will slowly slide to
the east through Friday. As the low moves east it will pinch off
the ridge. The models are hinting another low moving east through
the Bering Sea Thursday into Friday, reaching the west coast of
Alaska Friday night; however, at this point the models differ on
the exact strength and track of this low, especially as it 
affects the coast. 

At the surface, a 1033 mb ridge of high pressure centered 300 NM
north of Demarcation Point with slide southeast through Thursday
morning. A trough of low pressure on the north side of the Brooks
range will persist into Thursday night. The combination of the two
will tighten up the pressure gradient along the Beaufort Sea coast
(especially the eastern Beaufort Sea coast). A low will push into
Kotzebue Sound on Wednesday and will push east along the Brooks
through Friday. A front associated with this low will move over 
the west coast on Wednesday and will push east across the Interior
through Friday. A ridge of high pressure that stretches from the 
central Aleutians to the Yukon Delta will persist through 
Wednesday and will push south Wednesday night. A 1005 mb low will 
push into the eastern Aleutians Thursday morning. This low will 
deepen as it moves northeast through the Bering Sea. There is some
disagreement with the exact strength and track of this system; 
however the models generally agree that the low will reach the 
Y-K Delta Friday night. 

Central and Eastern Interior: A showery pattern is expected 
tonight into Wednesday night. Generally scattered showers are 
expected; however, showers may be numerous to widespread during 
the day tomorrow as a shortwave moves over the Interior. A front 
will bring rainfall is it pushes into the central Interior late 
Wednesday night and slowly moves east across the Interior through 
Friday. Areas of fog were observed across the Interior this 
morning. We expect fog again tomorrow morning; however, current 
thinking is that the fog won't be as dense as we saw today. 

West Coast and Western Interior: Scattered showers are expected
tonight. As the low pushes into Kotzebue Sound on Wednesday
rainfall is expected to become more widespread, especially south 
of Kotzebue. Rainfall associated with the front will continue into
Thursday, tapering off from west to east. The next system moving 
out of the Bering Sea will begin to spread rainfall into the Yukon
Delta Friday afternoon, with precipitation pushing north and east
Friday night into Saturday. Right now, the models differ on the 
exact details of exact time and placement of the precipitation 
associated with this system. 

North Slope and Brooks Range: The ridge of high pressure over the
Beaufort Sea combined with a trough on the north side of the
Brooks Range will bring gusty easterly winds to areas along the 
Beaufort Sea coast. Areas east of Point Thomson will likely see 
gusts up to 45 mph at times tonight into Wednesday. Minor snow 
accumulations are expected late in the week in the eastern Brooks 
Range as the surface low starts to move north of the range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...An area of low pressure
will push into the Y-K Delta Coast Friday night. This will bring 
onshore winds of 25 to 35 mph on the south side of the low as the
low pushing onshore. Right now there are some model differences in
the track and strength of this low; however, current thinking is
that the strongest winds winds with this system will be south of
our forecast area. We will have to keep an eye out on this system
over the next few days. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No issues anticipated at this time. 

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ235.

Gale Warning for PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

SEP 18