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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Fairbanks, AK (AFG)

FXAK69 PAFG 161411

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
511 AM AKST Sun Dec 16 2018

Aloft, at 500 mb, a 492 dam low near Point Lay will remain 
stationary today before starting to move off to the north tonight.
A 500 dam low just south of St. Lawrence Island will move to near
Bethel by this evening. The low will then slowly slide to the 
north reaching Unalakleet by Monday evening and Kotzebue by 
Tuesday evening where it will persist through at least Wednesday. 
A southerly flow pattern will persist over the eastern half of the
forecast area through at least Wednesday. 

Central and Eastern Interior: It will be a cold start to the day
for many locations with many locations colder than negative 15 
degrees. Fairbanks dropped below negative 20 Fahrenheit for the 
first time this season late Saturday evening. A front will begin
to push into the southern Interior late this evening. Increased 
cloud cover associated with this front will result in warmer 
temperatures for much of the Interior for Monday. The front will 
also spread snowfall across parts of the Interior, mainly to areas
to the west of Fairbanks as well as much of the Alaska Range. 
Snowfall amounts with this system will be in the 1 to 3 inch 
range, with locally amounts expected above pass level in the 
Alaska Range. Snowfall in the Interior with this front will taper 
off from south to north Monday night. A couple of shortwaves will 
pass from south to north Tuesday and Wednesday each bringing 
chances for additional snowfall; however, at this point the models
differ on the exact details with the NAM having higher snowfall
amounts than the other models.

North Slope and Brooks Range: Today will be another cold day with
much of the area starting off the day in the -15 to -25 range with
some colder spots. A front will bring snowfall to the central
Brooks Range Monday evening and will move north Monday night.
Snowfall along the coast will continue into early Tuesday. Most 
of the snow with this front will fall to the west of the Dalton 
Highway with 1 to 3 inches of accumulation expected. Snow 
associated northward moving shortwave will move into the central 
Brooks range Tuesday afternoon and will spread north Tuesday
night; however, at this point the models differ on the exact
details of this. Gusty northerly gap winds are expected to 
develop in the Western Brooks Range on Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior: Today will will see some snow
showers from the Bering Strait south to St. Lawrence Island 
today. Northerly winds with gusts to 25 mph are expected today. 
The pressure gradient will tighten up across the west coast 
tonight and tomorrow. This will bring northerly winds with gusts 
up to 40 mph to the Bering Strait by tomorrow afternoon with gusts
up to 30 mph elsewhere along the coast. A front will spread 
snowfall north across the western Interior tonight into Monday 
with the snowfall spreading over the eastern Seward Peninsula and
Kotzebue Sound Monday evening. 1 to 3 inches of snowfall is 
expected. Increasing winds will cause blowing snow to develop 
tomorrow afternoon across the Seward Peninsula, Kotzebue Sound as 
well as the areas just south of the Brooks Range. The blowing snow
in zones 208 and 217 may be sufficient for Winter Weather 
Advisory late Monday; however, we will hold off in issuing one at 
this time. 

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220.


DEC 18