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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Fairbanks, AK (AFG)

                            
538 
FXAK69 PAFG 181144
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
344 AM AKDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The latest solutions initialized well, and are in good 
agreement in the short term. There is some disagreement in the
extended periods on the evolution of the ridging that will be
building over the Central and Eastern Interior Sunday and Monday.
Winds are a bit stronger on the Northwest Arctic Coast than models
indicated, so will continue that trend for the near term. A wave
will move into the area from the southeast and push into the
Middle Tanana Valley late Friday morning. Will use the NAM
primarily for location with a boost from the SREF to increase the
Probabilities.  

Aloft...at 500 hpa...High amplitude ridge with a 550 dam center
near 80n 180 that has been over the state the last few days is 
being cutoff and undercut by a 504 dam low near the Pribilof
Islands. The low will move Southeast to the Alaska Peninsula by
Thursday morning as a 517 dam low develops along a shortwave over
the southern Gulf of Alaska, and a 509 dam low north of Banks
Island moves southwest. A col area will develop over the Eastern
Alaska Range this morning and slides over the Middle Tanana Valley
by Thursday afternoon. By Friday morning the center near the
dateline will slide south to 75n as it weakens to 545 dam. The 
low that was over the Pribilofs will move to just southwest of 
Kodiak Island at 519 dam. and the low near Banks Island will spawn
a 502 dam low MacKenzie Bay that will move southwest to be over
Bettles by Friday afternoon at 515 dam. The low will continue to
dig southwest to Nunivak Island by Saturday morning with troughing
extending northeast over Demarcation Point. Ridging will start
pushing over the Southeast Interior Saturday, while the high 
center near the dateline will continue to move south to 70N. 

Surface...A 1029 mb high over the in the central Arctic 300 nm
north of Point Barrow will drift west to the Dateline by Thursday
afternoon at 1025 mb. A broad area of low pressure around a 975 mb
low over the Pribilof Islands will slide east as a 996 mb low
develops south of the Gulf of Alaska and moves into the Northern
Gulf of Alaska by Friday morning. The low over the Pribilofs will
move to Sand Point by Thursday evening at 992 mb as the low in 
the northern Gulf moves to Upper Cook Inlet at 991 mb, and a 992 
mb low develops and moves into the Yukon Territory. A 1018 mb low
will develop over the Northern Beaufort Sea this evening and moves
to Barter Island by Thursday evening as it dissipates. 
Precipitation associated with the front will move into the 
Southeast Interior Thursday night. A strong pressure gradient will
develop as the the pressure centers move closer to each other over
the next 24 hours. 

North Slope and Brooks Range...Strong winds will persist across
the area with the strongest winds over the northwest coast. Will
continue the Winter Weather Advisory for zone 201 through this
evening as visibility will be reduced at times to less than one
half mile in blowing snow. Winds will diminish through the
afternoon and evening from east to west as the high center over
the Arctic moves west. Mostly clear conditions will otherwise 
prevail. Temperatures will be cooling the next few day as cold air
is pulled southwest into the area.

West Coast and Western Interior...Stalled weather front continues
to bring a spitting mix of precipitation to areas southwest of a 
line from Denali to Shishmaref. Precipitation will continue to
taper off from the north. Relatively strong northeast winds will 
continue across the area today, then diminish tonight as the low
moves to the southeast. Strongest winds will be in the Upper Kobuk
and Noatak Valleys and on St Lawrence Island. Temperatures cooling
the remainder of the week.

Eastern and Central Interior...Another mostly clear day today and
most of Thursday. A weather front will move northwest into the
Eastern Interior Thursday night spreading clouds and some showers
north and northwest to the Yukon River, and west to the Kuskokwim
Mountains Friday. Winds mainly northeast at 5 to 20 mph, but
expect winds gusting to 40 mph over higher terrain along the
Dalton and Elliott Highways, and around Indian Mountain. Winds
will diminish tonight. Expect some gusty gap winds in the Alaska
Range this weekend as the leeside trough strengthens. Temperatures
today similar to Tuesday, but cooling temperatures starting
Thursday as cold air filters southeast into the area.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.Fire Weather...Minimum Relative Humidity values will fall in the
the teens in the Middle and Upper Tanana Valley, and the Yukon
Flats again today as this long dry stretch continues. Expect
temperatures reaching into the upper 40s again today, and slowly
cooling through the remainder of the week. There is currently no
threat of thunderstorm activity.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Advisory for AKZ217-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB APR 18