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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Fairbanks, AK (AFG)

FXAK69 PAFG 221557

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
657 AM AKST Tue Jan 22 2019

The weather pattern is now shifting to a southerly flow pattern
with temperatures warming today through Wednesday and then
remaining warm into the weekend. A series of weather systems will
move north over the West Coast of Alaska this week bringing
periods of snow, blowing snow, strong winds and near blizzard
conditions. This southerly flow pattern will cause southerly
chinook winds over the southeast Interior to develop tonight and
continue into Thu.

A long wave trough over the Bering Sea and ridge over mainland
Alaska will become higher amplitude Wed and then persist into the
weekend. This will cause south flow aloft to increase Wed and then
remain moderately strong into the weekend. As weather systems move
north in this flow, chinook flow will wax and wane over the
southeast Interior. 

Will see strong chinook flow over the Alaska Range developing
late tonight and persisting into Wed night. 

A low pressure trough over the North Slope of Alaska will strengthen
through Wed then persist into Thu. High pressure north of the 
Arctic Coast of Alaska will persist into Thu. This features will
cause east winds to develop along the Actic Coast and increase
through Wed then persist into Thu. This will also cause areas of stratus
and fog along the Arctic Coast through Thu.

High pressure over the Alcan Border will strengthen through
tonight, and then persist into Thu. This will cause southeast 
winds along the Tanana and Yukon Rivers to increase through

A strong low in the southern Bering Sea will move to the Central 
Bering Sea Tue night then move west. A weather front extending 
from this low to Bristol Bay will move north to the southern 
Chukchi Sea Wed and then weaken. This will bring snow and blowing
snow and strong east winds to the SW INterior and West Coast 
south of Kotzebue late today and continuing into Wed. Expect 2- 
inches of snow with this system. This will cause east winds to 
increase across the West Coast and much of the Interior today and
tonight. This will cause areas of blowing snow over summits in 
zone 219 221.

A second low will move north into Bristol Bay tonight, then over 
the YK Delta as a 989 mb low by 3pm Wed, and to near St Lawrence 
Island as a 988 mb low by 3am Thu. This will bring another batch
of snow and blowing snow to the West Coast and Western Interior
Wed into Thu.


Aloft models initialize well and show similar solution through 
3pm Wed. After that time, the ECMF moves the next incoming weather
front north over the West Coast more quickly than the NAM and 
GFS. Prefer the slower NAM and GFS for Wed night and Thu. The NAM
spreads precip further east on Thu than the GFS which seems 
unlikely given the moderate to strong chinook winds. Bottom line 
is preference for GFS precip areal coverage through Thu, but maybe
nudge QPF towards NAM for the max precip amounts in the upslope 
areas of the West Coast. 

At the surface at 06Z, models verify well on most features except
all verify 3 mb too weak on high near Dawson YT, and 4-6 mb too
weak on a low located just west of the Yukon Delta. This means
that east winds down the Tanana and Yukon valleys are currently
stronger than models indicate, and will remain 3-5 kt stronger
today then models indicate. 

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ207.

Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ219-AKZ221.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220.