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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Fairbanks, AK (AFG)

                            
063 
FXAK69 PAFG 252040
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1240 PM AKDT Fri May 25 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Aloft...At 500 hpa...Weak upper level troughing will persist over
much of the State through Sunday. A 528 dam low south of Kodiak 
will continue to track to the east through the weekend. Weak high 
pressure will build over the Bering strait Friday into Saturday. 
Also upper level ridging will persist over the Arctic through the 
weekend. There is some model divergence by next week but weak 
ridging may build over the Interior while the west coast remains 
unsettled. Near normal temperatures expected through this weekend.

Surface...High pressure over the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas
will drift south and east toward the McKenzie Delta through 
Sunday. Weak low pressure will persist over Point Hope, Kotzebue 
and Norton Sounds as well as the Interior of Alaska. A weather 
front has stalled over the northern interior and will continue to 
weaken but will be the focus for scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms Friday into Saturday.

Central and Eastern Interior...Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms will move slightly northward from Marshall to Galena
to Bettles down to Eagle on Friday. A better chance of scattered 
showers and thunderstorms on Saturday for the central Interior. A 
drying trend Sunday into Tuesday for the Central and Eastern 
Interior. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will persist over
the western Interior on Sunday and Monday. Rivers remain high, 
see below for details. Winds generally light. Near normal 
temperatures expected through this weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...a high pressure ridge
building north and east our of the Bering Sea will produce a 
stable atmosphere however sea stratus will likely push inland at 
times along the coast and will produce periods of low ceilings
and fog. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will 
continue in the western interior through Sunday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move slightly 
northward from Marshall to Galena to Bettles down to Eagle on 
Friday. A better chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms on 
Saturday for the central Interior. A drying trend sunday into 
Tuesday. Minimum Relative Humidity values are expected to remain 
above 30 percent, with excellent overnight recovery in most 
locations. For the latest Fire Weather information go to 
www.weather.gov/arh/fire.

HYDROLOGY...
Upper Chena River will continues to run high through the weekend 
and early next week. A special weather statement is still in
effect through Sunday for high water levels on rivers and creeks.
A weather front has stalled over the northern interior and will 
continue to weaken but will be the focus for scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms Friday into Saturday. Precipitable water 
continues to run well above normal levels for late May however 
coverage of the showers and thunderstorms will be less today and 
Saturday over the central and eastern interior. Slow moving 
showers and storms may still produce locally heavy rain into 
Saturday. Additional amounts of rain for the Eastern Interior 
around 0.25 inches with locally higher amounts in areas with heavy
downpours. Lesser amounts of rain expected over the Middle Tanana
Valley Friday and Saturday. For the latest breakup and flooding 
information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

$$

JK MAY 18