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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Fairbanks, AK (AFG)

                            
020 
FXAK69 PAFG 210118
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
418 PM AKST Tue Feb 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...
An active weather pattern continues across northern Alaska with a
variety of winter weather, strong winds, and elevated storm surge
impacting portions of the west coast. A strong storm that brought
wind gusts in excess of 80 mph to the Bering Strait and Cape 
Lisburne today will continue to weaken as it moves north into the 
Arctic and out of the forecast area tonight. This system also
resulted in elevated storm surge and lifted ice in some
locations causing flooding of sea water on to the ice along the 
west coast. Another weather front over the Bering Sea will move 
into southwest Alaska early Wednesday morning and bring another 
round of mixed precipitation western Alaska and snow to the 
Interior.

A broad upper level ridge centered over the North Pacific which
extends north into mainland Alaska will persist into Wednesday.
The incoming low in the Bering Sea will suppress the ridge as it
shifts eastward into Canada. This will result in moist southwest
to westerly flow and a series of weak short waves to move east 
across the Interior into Friday. Warm air associated with the
initial weather front will push into the western half of the state
and allow freezing rain to mix with the snowfall from the Yukon 
River southward on Wednesday and Thursday. At the current time, it
appears the freezing rain will remain west of Fairbanks, but it
will be close. Periods of snow will continue into Friday with
amounts from 3 to 8 inches south of the Brooks Range, with some
locally higher amounts in favorable westerly facing slopes.

As the main trough aloft and colder air move east across the 
state Thursday into Friday, gusty west winds will increase in many
locations. In addition to areas of blowing snow, the Fairbanks 
area could experience wind gusts 25 to 35 mph and the potential 
for downed trees and power outages Thursday night.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ213.

Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-
AKZ214.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ201-AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ217.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205-AKZ206-
AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ218-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ227.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

FEB 18