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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Fairbanks, AK (AFG)

                            
419 
FXAK69 PAFG 171558
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
658 AM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
A long wave pattern consists of a deep trough over the Bering Sea
and NW Pacific with a strong ridge over the eastern Pacific north
over mainland Alaska. A series of strong short waves will move
northeast through this pattern causing the ridge to weaken over 
time and the flow to become more zonal in the second half of next
week. This will bring a series of strong storms across the West
Coast and Western Interior, with the storms weakening as they move
over the Interior.


Surface...
A low pressure trough from Deadhorse east will weaken today.
Stratus and fog along this trough is now diminishing as the trough
weakens. 

A 1007 mb low west of Wrangel Island will move northwest today.
A warm front stretching from the low to Point Lay to Huslia will 
move to Barrow to Bettles by 3pm Sat, to Fairbanks to Prudhoe Bay 
by 3am Sun, to Northway to Barter Island by 3pm Sun, and then 
along the Alcan Border Sun night. Warm air and snow along the
front will diminish to fog and flurries as the front moves east
today over the Interior and North Slope.

A low south of Adak will move to near Cape Navarin as a 992 mb 
low by 3am Sun, and to near Wrangel Island as a 993 mb low by 3am 
Tue. A warm front from this low to the southeast Bering will move
to Cape Navarin to the Bering Strait to the Yukon Delta by 3am 
Sun, to Point Lay to Minchumina by 3pm Sun and then occluding
Sunday night as the cold front rapidly undercuts with the warm 
front to be an occluded front from Wainwright to Denali by 3am Mon.
Expect 4-8 inches of snow along with southeast gales along the 
West Coast with the Warm front with snow ending quickly with the 
cold front passage Sun night. The will be local blizzard 
conditions along the Coast. Also expect areas of freezing rain 
Sunday south of Nome to Minchumina.

A very strong low will move north in to the central Bering Sea 
Mon, to the Bering Strait Mon night, and over northwest Alaska 
Tue. This will bring another round of strong winds, heavy snow, 
blizzard conditions to the West Coast Mon into Tue. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well and show similar solutions through 3pm 
Sun, then start to see differences on timing and strength of short
waves and surface lows moving NE over the Bering and Chukchi Seas
Sun night and Mon. Differences on timing and strength of short 
waves becomes significant from Tue onward. At this point favor GFS
through 3pm Mon, then moving towards the ensemble means for 
timing in the second half of next week. 


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Southwest winds 50 kt could push water and ice to near the runway
at Gambell on Mon night and Tue.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ215-
AKZ217.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ214.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ216-AKZ227.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220.
&&

$$

JB FEB 18