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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Fairbanks, AK (AFG)

                            
162 
FXAK69 PAFG 251041
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
241 AM AKDT Fri May 25 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The 00z models initialized well against the 00z surface analysis
and verified well against the 06z surface analysis. Model spread
is minimal in the short range and remains reasonable in both the
mid range as well as the extended range. 

Aloft weak flow continues over much of northern Alaska with a 
coll parked squarely over the central interior. Weak winds aloft 
combined with significant moisture in the low and mid levels of 
the atmosphere continue to place precipitable water levels around 
125% of normal for late May and the showers and thunderstorms that
continue to develop along a stalled frontal boundary in the 
central interior continue to produce brief heavy downpours. 
Strong high pressure aloft to the north of the state will drift 
south and east toward the McKenzie Delta and will push the coll 
south and east over the Yukon through Sunday.

On the North Slope the surface reflection of the upper level high
pressure system to the north of the state continues to bring low 
ceilings, fog, flurries as well as gusty easterly winds over much
of the north slope with little change is expected through Sunday.

Over the central and eastern interior the stalled front which has
been the focal point for wetting rains, scattered to numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorm will weaken and move south as
the surface high pressure system north of the state presses south
and east over the eastern North Slope and northern Yukon. As the
high pressure system builds south a slow drying trend Sunday is
expected which will continue into next week. Minimum relative 
humidity levels will drop from the 40s and upper 30s to around 30 
percent in many locations to the east of Fairbanks by Sunday. 
Winds are expected to remain light over the central and eastern 
interior and combined with temperatures only in the mid 60s will 
temper fire weather concerns through the weekend.

On the west coast and western interior a high pressure ridge
building north and east our of the Bering Sea will produce a 
stable atmosphere however sea stratus will likely push inland at 
times along the coast and will produce periods of low ceilings and
fog. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue 
in the western interior along a stalled weather front. 

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue over
much of the interior to the south and east of Bettles Friday and 
Saturday. The highest chances for wetting rains will again be over
the Fortymile Country today and south of the Yukon River 
Saturday. Minimum Relative Humidity values are expected to remain
above 30 percent, with excellent overnight recovery in most 
locations. Slow drying will start over the interior Sunday as high
pressure builds in from the north and shower activity as well as
clouds diminish. Minimal relative humidity levels will drop from
the 40s and upper 30s into the low 30s and upper 20s for much of
the central and eastern interior especially to the east of
Fairbanks by Sunday. Temperatures are not expected to top 70
degrees for most locations through Sunday and winds are expected
to remain light through Sunday. For the latest Fire Weather 
information go to www.weather.gov/arh/fire.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Upper Chena River will continues to run near high through the
weekend but levels have begun to slowly decrease.  A weather 
front has stalled over the northern interior and will continue to
weaken but will be the focus for scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. Precipitable water continues to
run well above normal levels for late May however coverage of the
showers and thunderstorms will be less today and Saturday over 
the central and eastern interior. Slow moving showers and storms 
may still produce locally heavy rain into Saturday.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

$$

CCC MAY 18