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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Fairbanks, AK (AFG)

                            
751 
FXAK69 PAFG 191350
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
550 AM AKDT Sun Aug 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A northward moving front will bring rain to the West Coast and
Western Interior today. Strong downslope winds are expected to 
develop late today in the Alaska Range continuing into tonight. 
These issues will be the main forecast that we will have to deal 
with today. The 00Z models initialized fairly well compared to the
analysis and are in good agreement with the overall synoptic 
pattern out through Tuesday. 

Aloft, at 500 mb, a ridge currently extends along a Yakutat to 
Gambell axis. The west side of this ridge will be pushed northward 
today by a shortwave. This will set up southerly flow over the 
Interior by tonight, continuing into Monday. By Monday morning the
axis of the ridge will extend from Yakutat to Point Lay. The 
ridge will be pushed east into the Yukon Territory as a 552 dam 
low moves from the Gulf of Alaska into the southeastern Interior. 
This low will move east into the Yukon Territory for Wednesday. A
550 dam low will dive south over the Arctic Ocean Tuesday and 
will be near Utqiagvik early Wednesday morning. A 539 dam low 
will push west into the central Bering Sea on Wednesday reaching 
the west coast of Alaska on Thursday. 

Central and Eastern Interior: The main weather issue in the short
term for the Interior will be winds in the Alaska Range today 
into Monday. Winds will ramp up as a front associated with a low 
in the north Pacific passes over the Alaska Range this evening. 
Winds will peak early Monday morning with gusts up to 50 mph 
before decreasing during the daytime on Monday. A Wind Advisory 
was issued for zones 223 and 226 by the day shift on Saturday in 
anticipation of the strong winds. As the aforementioned front 
moves north it will bring increased cloud cover. Precipitation 
should be limited outside of the Alaska Range due to downsloping; 
however. A warming trend will continue in temperatures into 
Monday for most of the Interior. A low will move into the 
southeastern Interior on Tuesday bringing cooler temperatures and
rainfall. The low will also provide enough forcing for a few 
thunderstorms in the southeastern Interior Tuesday afternoon. A 
somewhat showery pattern looks to continue for the Interior 
Wednesday into next weekend. 

West Coast and Western Interior: A weather front will spread rain
north across the area today before reaching the western Brooks
Range tonight. Rainfall amounts with this system will be in the
quarter to half inch range for most areas. The bulk of the
rainfall will end by midnight for most areas. There will still be
scattered showers through Tuesday. A weak ridge looks to limit 
showers for Wednesday; however, a wetter pattern returns for 
Thursday (although the models differ on the exact details of this 
right now). 

North Slope and Brooks Range: Some gusty downslope winds are 
currently being observed early this morning. Current expectation 
is for the winds to die down fairly quickly this morning. A 
northward moving front will spread rain showers into the Brooks 
Range tonight across the North Slope tomorrow. A ridge of high 
pressure will build south across the Beaufort Sea Coast tonight 
likely bringing some issues with fog and lower ceilings to areas 
along the coast east of Utqiagvik into the middle of the week. 

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A warming trend is expected to continue today and Monday for much
of the central and eastern Interior. Strong gap winds are expected
for Alaska Range Passes today into early Monday. A weather front 
will spread wetting rainfall over the West Coast and Western 
Interior today. An area of low pressure will bring wetting
rainfall and cooler temperatures to the Central and Eastern 
Interior on Tuesday, along with a few isolated thunderstorms. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Recent rainfall has caused rises in rivers draining the north side
of the Brooks Range (Such as the Kuparuk, Sagavanirktok and
Colville). Rivers are expected to run high into the middle of the
week; however, no flooding is anticipated at this point. 

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ226.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220.
&&

$$

AUG 18