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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Fairbanks, AK (AFG)

                            
357 
FXAK69 PAFG 201226
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
426 AM AKDT Sun May 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Aloft, at 500 mb, a 534 dam low over the Bering strait 
willd drift to the south on Sunday and become absorbed in
the long wave trough south of Kodiak on Monday. Several 
shortwaves associated with a low in the western Gulf of Alaska 
will move across the interior through Tuesday. The long wave 
trough will weaken slowly through middle of this week, then 
deepen again through the second half of this week. Each of the 
short waves will bring a band of showers and isolated 
Thunderstorms to the Interior through Tuesday.

Surface...1028 mb high north of the Arctic Coast of Alaska will 
persist through Tue. The thermal trough will persist across the 
central interior through Tuesday. A 984 mb low will track across 
the Aleutians late Monday into Tuesday. 

Central and Eastern Interior...The thermal trough along with
shortwaves aloft will be the focus for scattered to numerous
showers and a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms Sunday
through Tuesday for the Interior. Temperatures will remain near 
normal for much of the area through the week. 

West Coast and Western Interior: Shortwaves moving up from the
gulf of alaska will keep the southern west coast in a showery
regime. Scattered showers and Isolated thunderstorms are possible
from Galena south Sunday and Monday.

North Slope and Brooks Range: 1028 mb high north of the Arctic 
Coast of Alaska will persist through Mon then weaken Tue. This 
will cause east winds 25-30 kt along the Arctic Coast to persist 
through Tue. This will also cause areas of stratus and fog from 
Barrow east through Tue. Strong wind headlines out for the eastern
north slope through this afternoon. 

Coastal 
Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

FIRE WEATHER...
The thermal trough along with shortwaves aloft will be the focus 
for scattered to numerous showers and a slight chance of isolated 
thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday for the Interior. Expect 
0.10-0.25 inch of rain with the showers. Minimum rh values 25 to 
35 percent Sunday and Monday afternoons. Higher relative 
humidities on Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY...
Breakup continue along the Yukon Basin; however, no issues have
been noted so far. The lower reaches of the Yukon are still ice
covered and thus residents should continue to monitor the river. 
Many of the rivers in the Interior will see a rising over the next
few days as the temperatures rise.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

MAY 18