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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Fairbanks, AK (AFG)

                            
000
FXAK69 PAFG 161344
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
444 AM AKST Fri Nov 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Synopsis...Quiet weather in the Central and Eastern Interior. 
Winds increasing on the Arctic Coast with low stratus ceilings 
along the coast, and patchy fog. Snow on the West Coast as a low 
pressure system in the Bering Sea continues to spin moisture 
north. 

Models...No change in what we have been seeing for quite some 
time now, the run to run continuity in the solutions has been good
in the short term, and there is very good agreement. Solutions 
continue to struggle beyond 48 hours, and there is significant 
divergence beyond 96 hours. Surface solutions are no better, 
though the divergence does not appear to be as significant. 
16/00Z solutions initialize well against the 16/06Z surface 
analysis with only minor discrepancies in strength and location of
the major features. Will use an equal blend for the short term 
with a lean to the NAM for winds. Will need to make some local 
adjustments to the winds that the models do not account for.

Aloft...At 500 dam...Fast northwest to southeast flow continues
over the Arctic, while ridging lies from a 575 dam high off the
Oregon Coast over Yakutat to Point Barrow then west over Wrangel
Island this morning. Fast zonal flow continue north of 75N as the
ridge slides east to lie from 574 dam high off the Washington 
Coast over Whitehorse YT to Deadhorse then west of Wrangel Island
by Saturday morning. Troughing over the Bering Sea with a 524 dam
low just south of the Gulf of Anadyr extends southeast to a 541
dam low over Chignik and a 547 dam low over 45N 150W this morning.
The trough will weaken as it pushes east working over the ridge to
lie from 521 dam low near the Gulf of Anadyr over Nome to
Anchorage then southeast over the Gulf of Alaska. A 521 dam low
southwest of the Attu this morning will move into the Central
Bering Sea tonight, and absorb the low near the Gulf of Anadyr,
while a 525 dam low develops south of the Aleutians and moves to
200 nm southwest of Nikolski by Saturday morning. A shortwave will
develop Southwest of mainland Alaska and lie from a 522 dam low 
over the Pribilofs to Sand Point and southeast by Saturday
morning, moving to lie from the low now just southwest of Nunivak
Island over Bethel to McGrath to Yakutat as it pushes its way over
the ridge. At 850 dam...Temperatures 0C to -10C over most of the 
forecast areas this morning with a pocket of temperatures slightly
above 0C over the Lower Yukon Delta. Temperatures will be
relatively steady over most of the forecast area with the
exception of the Middle and Lower Yukon Delta where they will
remain just above 0C, and that area of slightly above 0C
temperatures will expand north over the Seward Peninsula.

Surface...A ridge of high pressure over the northeast half of
mainland Alaska with a 1030 mb high over the central Beaufort Sea,
a 1030 mb high just east of Old Crow YT, and a 1042 mb high just
northeast of Watson Lake YT. Broad area of low pressure over the
Bering Sea is pushing inland over the southwest mainland and north
over the Chukchi Sea. A 1001 mb low 200 nm west of St Matthew 
Island will merge with a 990 mb low moving east across the 
Southern Bering Sea and a trough of low pressure will persist 
through the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea. The 990 mb low will 
move northeast tonight from the Pribilof Islands to Nunivak 
Island, then stall near Cape Romanzof through Sunday. A 1020 mb 
high will persist over Chukotka. Low pressure will continue to 
push over the state as the high pressure is pushed east.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Winds snapping around from the
northeast and east at 10 to 25 mph along the coast. Inland winds
will also swing around but at 5 to 15 mph. Stratus along the
southern flank of the high pressure is moving over the coastal
areas and will bring some flurries or light snow to the coast and
Plains today. The Brooks Range will start out partly cloudy with 
increasing high clouds by afternoon. Blowing snow and fog reducing
visibility in the coastal areas today, with visibility reduced to
less than one mile at times. Temperatures cooling.

West Coast and Western Interior...Increasing clouds if it has not
already clouded up with snow or snow showers for most areas. There
is a chance of Freezing Rain in the Lower Yukon Delta today and
tonight. 2 to 3 inches of new snow can be expected by Saturday 
morning in most areas with some heavier amounts in the Nulato 
Hills, and Bendeleben Mountains on the Seward Peninsula. Winds 
generally northeast to east at 5 to 20 mph.

Central and Eastern Interior...Increasing clouds today.
Temperatures will be warming the next couple days with a Chinook
developing Sunday with winds gusting near 50 mph south of Delta
Junction. Chance of freezing rain south and east of Delta Junction
Sunday night into Monday. The front will reform to the north of
Fairbanks with snow north to the Yukon River as the front stalls
over the area. Snowfall of 2 to 4 inches expected with the
heaviest snowfall in the White and Ray Mountains.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Broad area of low pressure
will be over the state with no significant precipitation being
indicated by the current model solutions. 

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB NOV 18