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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Fairbanks, AK (AFG)

                            
555 
FXAK69 PAFG 190048
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
348 PM AKST Sun Feb 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Active weather pattern continues over northern Alaska.

The first in a series of strong winter systems affecting northern
Ala ska is winding down with snow, freezing rain and strong winds
decreasing over western Alaska this evening and over night.
Conditions have improved over the lower YK Delta and Seward 
Peninsula and will improve this evening over Kotzebue Sound and
Western Brooks Range later tonight. A occluded front currently
along a Kotzebue to McGrath line will continue to weaken and move
north and east into the western and central interior where light
snow in the 1 to 2 inch range is expected. Upslope snow will
continue especially in the southwestern Brooks Range tonight and
Monday where an additional 3 to 5 inches are expected.

The second strong winter system begins impacting the Lower YK
Delta late tonight and Monday morning with strong winds, 1 to 2
inches of snow, as well up to one tenth of an inch of freezing 
rain in the lower YK Delta, and eastern Norton Sound. Winds in
these areas are expected to gust in the 40 to 50 mph range.
Heavier snow in the 3 to 5 inch range impacts northern Norton
Sound and the Seward Peninsula Monday and will continue into
Tuesday. Light freezing rain may mix with the now as far north as
Nome. Very strong winds through the Bering Strait and on St
Lawrence Island are expected to develop tomorrow and continue into
Tuesday with wind gusts to 70 mph possible in these areas. The
winds combined with falling snow will create blizzard conditions
on St Lawrence Island, the Bering Strait as well as Kotzebue
Sound and along the coast northward to Point Hope. The strong
front moves rapidly east from Point Hope to Bristol Bay Tuesday
morning to Prudhoe Bay to Fairbanks Tuesday evening and into 
Canada Wednesday morning. The front will bring a quick shot of 
light snow over the western and central interior where 1 to 2 
inches of snow are expected.

A third system moves north into the central Bering Sea Wednesday
morning with another round of snow and freezing rain moving into
the lower YK Delta Wednesday morning and over the Seward Peninsula
and western interior Wednesday afternoon, and the central 
interior by Wednesday evening. Considerable model spread exists 
on the track and strength of this system with progressive flow.

As the third system moves through the interior Thursday and
into the Yukon Friday, a much colder airmass dives south and west
out of the high Canadian Arctic and into northern Alaska next 
weekend.



Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ217.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ216.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

$$

CCC FEB 18