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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Fairbanks, AK (AFG)

                            
115 
FXAK69 PAFG 201226
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
426 AM AKDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Aloft, at 500 mb, a 496 dam low currently near Point Lay will move
over Kotzebue Sound by 4 AM Friday. By 4 PM on Friday the low will
be near Nome and by 4 AM Saturday it will be near Emmonak. The low
will then persist over the Yukon Delta through Sunday night.
The GFS is producing the most QPF with these snow showers for 
zone 213. The NAM and European are both showing less QPF. We
leaned more towards the NAM for POPS and QPF.

At the surface, A 989 mb low west of Kivalina will move south
to near Nome as a 986 mb low by Noon Fri then weaken slowly
over the Yukon Delta Saturday evening. A 992 mb low 60 nm north 
of Barter Island will persist through Friday, then move to near 
Barrow as a 992 mb low by 4am Sat. This low will track down the
West coast and be near Saint Lawrence Island as a 995 mb low
Sunday afternoon.

West Coast and Western Interior: Winter Weather Advisories
remain in effect for zones 207 (south of Cape Krusenstern) and 
213. Conditions in zone 207 should improve this morning as the 
low continues to dive south. For zone 213 snow and blowing snow 
will continue through Saturday evening before conditions start to 
improve. Snow showers will continue into Sunday but winds will
diminish slowly on Sunday. In addition to the snow and blowing 
snow there is at least some possibility that freezing spray from 
the Bering Sea could be blown onshore by the strong winds 
resulting in small amounts of ice accumulating on structures close
to the shore. High surf is also a concern due to the strong 
northerly winds in zone 213 with this system. 

North slope and Brooks Range: Low pressure tracking across
the north slope will bring snow showers for Barrow and areas
to the west through Friday night. Winds will increase for Barrow
this morning from the Northeast around 20 to 30 mph then switch
to the Southeast Saturday morning. Due to the short duration and
wind direction not expecting any high surf issues for Barrow.

Central and Eastern Interior: Some stratus and flurries/light
snow showers over the Eastern interior this morning. Areas
that are clear are experiencing cold temperatures. Fort Yukon
and Bettles are below zero this morning. More cold morning
low temperatures are expected this weekend.  

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory for AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ213.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ235.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

$$

JK OCT 17