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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Fairbanks, AK (AFG)

FXAK69 PAFG 172240

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
240 PM AKDT Sun Jun 17 2018

Moist pattern continues over northern Alaska with focus on
rainfall amounts over the western interior, Brooks Range and 
strong winds through the Alaska Range.

Aloft at 500 mb, A deep longwave trough over the eastern Bering 
Sea and Western Alaska and ridging over the Yukon and eastern 
Alaska will continue into the late next week. A strong upper 
level low over Bristol Bay will slowly weaken in place through the
week as the ridge over the Yukon builds north and west over the 
eastern interior through the week. An upper level low near 80N and
165W will move east to be located along 75N and 140W Tuesday and 

A stalled trough at 700 mb along a a YK Delta to Atigun Pass line
will be the focal point for periods of rain and numerous showers 
with wetting rains expected over much of the area. Rainfall 
totals along the trough are expected to range from one quarter to
one half inch with the heaviest totals in the Brooks Range through
Tuesday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening
from Galena to Bettles to Fort Yukon. Convection is expected to 
be minimal Monday afternoon and evening over the interior.

On the surface a 993 low over the northern Pacific with a surge of
moisture from the sub-tropics will plow northward into Bristol 
Bay and will bring another round of heavy rain to the Alaska Range
and will produce strong winds through and near the Alaska Range 
passes. Rainfall totals in the one half to one and a half inches 
range are expected through Tuesday morning along the southern 
slopes of the Alaska Range.

Strong gap winds will continue and strengthen tonight and tomorrow
through the passes and along the north slopes of the Alaska Range
as winds aloft produce a moderate strength mountain wave. A wind
advisory continues for these areas through Tuesday morning. The
strongest winds are expected late Monday afternoon and evening 
and may approach warning level Monday evening and will need to be

The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12z surface
analysis and verified well against the 18z surface analysis.
Model spread remains minimal in the short range and is reasonable
in the both the mid range and extended range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


Fire weather conditions will be minimal across the majority of the
state with most areas expecting the potential for wetting rain 
retaining high RH over the western interior and west coast.  Very
little is expected in the way of convection this evening over the
central and eastern interior, with only a small chance for 
isolated embedded thunderstorms near the front from Galena to 
Bettles to Fort Yukon. Chinook conditions and a strengthening 
ridge will support RH values down to the around 30 percent where 
winds are light. Strong winds through Alaska Range passes will not
be co-located with sufficiently low RH.


Additional rainfall of between one quarter and one half inch is
expected along the frontal band stretching from the lower YK 
Delta to Ambler to the northeast Brooks Range with the heaviest
totals in the Brooks Range. Similar rainfall total have been 
observed over the same areas over the last 24 hours. 24 hour 
rainfall totals are expected to be in the one half inch to one and
half inch range over the southern slopes of the Alaska Range with
persistent and deep southerly flow.


Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ226.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.