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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Fairbanks, AK (AFG)

                            
735 
FXAK69 PAFG 220014
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
414 PM AKDT Fri Sep 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A wet and unsettled pattern is expected to continue across much of
the area (especially south of the Brooks Range) into early next
week. The models 12 UTC models initialize well with the 18 UTC 
surface analysis and are in overall good agreement out though the
weekend. 

Aloft, at 500 mb, a 532 dam low currently over the central Brooks
Range will move to the east very slowly through Sunday night. A
532 dam low currently over St. Matthew Island will east to near
Scammon Bay by Saturday afternoon. This low will move into 
eastern Norton Sound. By Monday, a broad trough will be situated 
over the west coast with a weak ridge over the eastern Interior. 
This setup will break down for Tuesday as more westerly flow 
develops across the area. A ridge will build across the Bering Sea
on Wednesday. This ridge will move east across the area through 
Friday. By the end of next week, the models are hinting a strong 
low moving through the Bering Sea; however, at this point the 
models differ significantly on the details of this. 

At the surface, a 979 mb low currently near St. Matthew Island 
will move to near Hooper Bay by Saturday afternoon. This low will
then move to the north reaching eastern Norton Sound by Sunday
evening and Kotzebue Sound by Tuesday morning. A ridge of high
pressure will persist across the Arctic Coast into Monday. 

Central and Eastern Interior: A front associated with a low
in the Bering Sea will push through tonight with rainfall expected
along the front. An overall wet and showery pattern will continue
through the weekend. Gusty winds will develop tonight in the
Alaska Range. Gusts up to 50 mph are expected in the passes of 
the Alaska Range. We opted to issue a Wind Advisory from midnight 
tonight to noon tomorrow for the eastern Alaska Range, where the 
winds are expected to be the strongest. Another round of gap winds
are expected in the Alaska Range for Sunday. Rain showers will 
end Sunday night with a break in the precipitation expected on 
Monday as a weak ridge build in over the area. Another round of 
precipitation is expected for Monday night and Tuesday as a 
shortwave bring moisture up from the south. A dry pattern is 
expected for late next week as a ridge builds overhead.

North Slope and Brooks Range: A low will move through the eastern
Brooks Range thorough Sunday night. This low will bring snow
showers to the Brooks Range tonight into Saturday. Accumulations
will generally be light with an inch or two of accumulation 
expected through Saturday afternoon. Late Saturday evening into 
early Sunday we expect some more enhanced snowfall in the eastern
Brooks Range. Around 4 to 5 inches of snow is expected east of the
Dalton Highway with another 1 to 2 inches from the Dalton Highway
west. Some scattered snow showers are also expected along the 
coast near Deadhorse this evening. On Saturday night areas along 
the coast from Deadhorse east will see an inch or two of snow
accumulation. 

West Coast and Western Interior...A front associated with a low 
in the Bering Sea will move north over the area tonight and will 
bring another round of rainfall to the area south of the Seward 
Peninsula. A showery and unsettled pattern will persist through 
the Wednesday as the low slowly moves north into Norton Sound. 
Easterly winds with gusts of 25 to 35 mph are expected for St 
Lawrence Island, Norton Sound, and the Yukon Delta tonight. Winds
will shift to the northeast Saturday morning over St Lawrence 
Island and the Bering Strait with sustained winds 20 to 30 mph 
persisting through Monday. This will likely lead to elevated water
levels along the north shore of St Lawrence Island through 
Monday. A break in precipitation is expected for the middle part 
of next week as a ridge builds overhead. The models are hinting at
a wet and windy pattern for late next week and next weekend; 
however, they differ significantly on the details. 

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Elevated water levels are
expected for St. Lawrence Island Saturday and Sunday. See the 
west coast section above for more detailed information. The models
are hinting at an active pattern along the west coast for late 
next week into next weekend. It is too far out to single out any 
specific impacts; however we will have to continue to watch the 
situation. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall across the west coast and the Interior will cause some
rises in river; however, no issues are expected at the moment. 

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210.
&&

$$

SEP 18