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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Fairbanks, AK (AFG)

                            
661 
FXAK69 PAFG 242353
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
353 PM AKDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Overall, the models are in good agreement out through Monday. The
main forecast challenges will be strong winds this evening and 
tonight along the Chukchi Sea Coast as well as the potential for 
thunderstorms (some producing heavy rain and small hail) in the 
southeastern Interior. 

Aloft: A 552 dam low sits in the Gulf of Alaska. A weak upper
trough that currently sits over Kotzebue Sound will move to the
west on Sunday. An upper level ridge that currently stretches from
the Chukotsk Peninsula to Bristol Bay will move to the east to
become the dominant feature over much of northern Alaska for
Monday and Tuesday. An upper low will push into the west coast on
Wednesday helping to push the ridge to the east. 

At the surface, A 994 mb low that currently sits at 71N 176W Will 
move to the northeast through Sunday. A weather front associated 
with this low will pass over the Chukchi Sea Coast tonight into 
early Sunday. A 1014 mb low near Beaver Creek, Yukon Territory 
will continue moving to the north this evening. A 998 mb low 
southwest of Shemya will move northeast to be 995 mb 200 nm north 
of Adak Sunday morning. An area of high pressure over Bristol Bay
will move to the east on Sunday. 

North Slope: 
Strong winds continue on the Chukchi Sea this ahead of an eastward
moving front. The winds will die down rather quickly early Sunday
morning. The aforementioned front will bing some rain to areas
west of Barrow during the day on Sunday. East of Barrow on Sunday
conditions should be relatively clear with clouds staring to
increase in the evening from west to east. Current forecast
guidance is showing some potential for freezing rain for the north
slope early in the day on Tuesday. Temperatures at the surface
will fall quickly on Monday night; however, temperatures aloft 
will not drop nearly as quickly. 

Central and eastern Interior: Numerous showers expected this
evening for much of the southeastern Interior. See the hydrology
section below for more details about rises in small streams and
creeks due to heavy rain showers. Scattered thunderstorms are 
expected this evening for the far eastern Interior with isolated 
thunderstorms expected across much of the southern and and eastern
Interior. Most areas will see an increase in temperatures between
Sunday and Monday with continued warming on Tuesday. Many 
locations in the central and eastern Interior will see 
temperatures between 75 and 80 degrees on Tuesday.

West Coast and Western Interior: Gusty winds are expected tonight
for the northwest coast; however, these winds will quickly die
down tomorrow. A weather front will bring some rain to St. 
Lawrence Island late Sunday and Monday and for the West Coast 
Monday Night and Tuesday. Temperatures for most areas will be 
warmer on Sunday than they were today; however, with the rain on 
Monday temperatures look to drop for most coastal areas. 

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected this evening east of 
a line from Chalkyitsik to Central to Tok. A red flag warning is 
out of the Yukon Flats for this evening because of the potential 
for abundant lightning strikes. Elsewhere this evening, isolated
thunderstorms possible in many areas in the Interior south of 
Fort Yukon. 

Minimum relative humidity values are expected to be above 25
percent for most of the forecast area for this evening and Sunday 
with with exception being in the Yukon Flats and the Southeastern 
Brooks range. In these areas relative humidity values will drop 
into the lower 20 percent range. Sustained winds in the very dry 
areas will be under 15 mph. Most areas in the Interior will see an
increase in temperatures between Sunday and Monday with continued
warming for the central and eastern Interior for Tuesday. Many 
locations in the central and eastern Interior will see 
temperatures between 75 and 80 degrees on Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Numerous rain showers and scattered thunderstorms are occuring 
this afternoon in the Upper Tanana valley and the Fortymile 
County. Showers will continue this evening before tapering off 
overnight. Some areas may see an additional quarter to half inch 
of rain between now and early tomorrow morning. In addition, some
of the thunderstorm may produce small hail. 

Many small streams or creeks in the area will see rapid rises with  
some approaching bankfull. Heavy rains yesterday into early today
have caused minor flooding in some small creeks and streams that 
drain the eastern Alaska Range, particularly between Dot Lake and 
Tanacross. A small stream flood advisory has been issued for the 
area through this evening. Some isolated minor flooding of small 
creeks and streams is possible. Area rivers will also see rises 
over the next day as well, but at this time flooding of the larger
rivers is not expected. 

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning for AKZ220.

High Wind Warning for AKZ201.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220.

Gale Warning for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

$$

JUN 17