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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Aberdeen, SD (ABR)

FXUS63 KABR 192040

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
340 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Large upper level low pressure area to our east bringing us the 
showers/storms late this afternoon will slowly move out of the 
region tonight taking the rainfall with it. Another weak short wave 
trough dropping in from the northwest tonight will bring in some 
more scattered showers/storms mainly this evening. Already have all 
this covered in the forecast. Will have to watch the low clouds and 
expect they will dissipate some across the east tonight. Left in the 
patchy fog in the east tonight with winds going light and the moist 
soils. Otherwise, surface high pressure ridging will build in 
tonight and Friday bringing in some drier air along with mostly 
sunny skies. Some of the models did indicate surface heating 
showers/storms possibly affecting the far east on Friday. Thus, left 
those in the forecast for now.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

The CWA will be in-between two upper level lows by Friday evening, 
one positioned across the Great Lakes and another sliding east 
across the British Columbia and Alberta provinces of Canada. Besides 
lingering cloud cover across far eastern SD and western MN Friday 
evening, the latter will be our main weather-producer in the long 
term. After a quiet start to the weekend on Saturday thanks to 
building high pressure, a surface low pressure system and associated 
frontal boundaries look to track across the Northern Plains on 
Sunday into Monday. This is when scattered showers and thunderstorms 
will be possible. Limited CAPE should help to limit overall severe 
potential, despite ample deep layer shear. As the parent upper low 
continues east across south central Canada through early next week, 
a northwest flow pattern develops and dominates across the Northern 
Plains. As a result, already generally seasonable temperatures 
Friday through Sunday will stay seasonable or below average next 
week (highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s). A few shortwaves will 
have the opportunity to bring slight precipitation chances during 
this period as well. Exact timing and location will be difficult to 
pin down until more time passes.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Scattered showers and MVFR cigs remain over the eastern part of
the area exiting later this evening. Shortwave in ND moving 
southeast may cause isolated showers and storms to affect 
KMBG/KABR near the end of the TAF period, however not confident 
enough to include just yet. Otherwise VFR conditions prevailing 
the remainder of the TAF