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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Albuquerque, NM (ABQ)

                            
898 
FXUS65 KABQ 231116 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
516 AM MDT Sun Sep 23 2018

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Upper ridge over NM with sfc lee trough. VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...137 AM MDT Sun Sep 23 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
The ridge of high pressure over NM will shift east today as a trough
of low pressure moves into the Great Basin. This trough will pass to
the north of the state Monday, but send a back door cold front south
into eastern NM Tuesday. Low level moist, upslope flow will lead to
some showers and thunderstorms primarily over the northern mountains
and northeast Tuesday afternoon. The front will continue west Tuesday
evening and push through the central mountain canyons into the Rio 
Grande Valley. Fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms are 
expected across central and eastern areas Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Dry weather returns for the end of the week. A slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms are forecast for this weekend. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Our warm and dry ridge of high pressure will begin to move east 
today in response to a short wave trough moving into the Great Basin.
A lee side trough will bring some breezes in the northeast this 
after with warmer temperatures. Most places will have above normal 
high temperatures. 

The dry and warm weather will continue Monday as the upper trough
passes to our north. Breezy conditions will favor the central
mountains and adjacent east slopes. The trough will drop a potent
back door cold front toward far northeast NM Monday and Monday night.
The front will rush south through the eastern plains Tuesday and west
into the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday night. A sharp increase in
moisture will result in showers and thunderstorms over the mountains
and northeast Tuesday, and even more widespread on Wednesday. Highs
will drop sharply on Tuesday and Wednesday. 

Back to dry and warmer weather for the end of the week as high
pressure builds back over NM. The high will quickly shift east this 
weekend and will allow a modest amount of moisture from Mexico to 
come north into NM. Isolated showers and storms will favor the 
southwest and south central mountains. 

CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Highs will warm to a few degrees above average today under a ridge 
aloft. Widespread fair to poor ventilation rates are expected today 
along and south of Interstate 40.

A disturbance passing to the north of New Mexico may bring a few 
storms to the far northwest and north central Monday and Monday 
night. High temperatures Monday will remain above average, 
especially across the eastern plains. Vent rates improve overall on 
Monday. 

A stronger cold front is still expected Tuesday and temperatures 
from the central mountain chain over the plains will cool 5 to 20 
degrees in it's wake. Chances for showers and storms will increase 
especially over the central and east Tuesday through Wednesday as 
highs range from near to about 15 degrees below average on 
Wednesday. A gusty east wind into the RGV appears likely Tuesday 
night as the front pushes westward. Suspect the wind grids for this 
time period are not strong enough with the south and westward 
frontal push based on the forecast surface gradient, but would bet 
the guidance will increase as we get closer to Tuesday. Isolated to 
scattered storms will also be possible as far west as the 
Continental Divide Tuesday night and Wednesday. Good to excellent 
vent rates forecast overall Tuesday will trend to fair to poor 
Wednesday central and east. 

Generally dry weather with a weaker front in the east are expected 
late this week. At least a few storms over the higher terrain can't 
be ruled out next weekend due to the active but variable pattern 
suggested by the GFS and ECMWF. 

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$