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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Albuquerque, NM (ABQ)

FXUS65 KABQ 252323 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
523 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2019

Wdly sct mainly dry showers and isold short lived tstms with gusty 
variable winds but little to no rain east of the central mt chain 
moving to the ne and east at 23Z will persist until around 26/05Z. 
Dryline to back to west of the Pecos Valley aft 26/05Z but may not 
quite reach the east slopes of the central mt chain by 26/12Z. Expect
lcl MVFR cigs/vsbys in br to develop east of the dryline and persist
until around 15Z before improving. Forecast models indicate mid 
level moisture increasing over central NM on swly flow aloft next 24 
hrs, leading to more widespread convection aft 26/18Z. 


.PREV DISCUSSION...324 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2019...
Low level moisture has begun to move into southeastern New Mexico,
and it will continue to increase and move westward. The best chance
for showers and thunderstorms will be along and east of the central
mountain chain on Wednesday while central and western areas of the
state will likely see dry thunderstorms. Gusty and erratic winds can
be expected with these storms. Increasing moisture will allow for a 
better chance of wetting storms in and west of the Rio Grande 
Valley by the end of the week.


Cumulus has begun to form over the eastern plains, and a few showers
and storms have developed over the Sacramento Mountains this 
afternoon. The chance for isolated convection will continue through 
this evening in the southeast where Gulf moisture has begun to move 
into the state. The severe risk appears minimal this afternoon due to
weak upper-level flow and marginal instability. However, as the 
storms move towards the NM/TX border, a strong storm or two isn't out
of the question where the atmosphere is slightly more unstable. 

Moisture will continue to creep into the state underneath a building
high pressure system through the remainder of the week. Some moisture
will even make it into the Rio Grande Valley by Wednesday. Deeper 
moisture will allow for better storm coverage tomorrow along and 
east of the central mountain chain, but dry showers and 
thunderstorms can be expected west of the central mountain chain 
where moisture won't be as deep. Virga will likely be plentiful in
the RGV and westward tomorrow.

Storm coverage will increase each day as moisture continues to move
and increase westward. As such, the chance for wetting storms will 
increase in central and western NM by the end of the week, but the 
chance for dry activity will remain especially on the edge of the
better low-level moisture.

The upper-level high will continue to strengthen over the state this
week, peaking at about 595 dm by Friday. The high will weaken
somewhat this weekend in response to an upper-level trough off the
northern Pacific coast, but the moisture plume will be persistent 
and continue through the weekend and early next week. Thus, chances 
for precipitation stay in the forecast.



A mid-level ridge of high pressure will continue to build northward 
over the state from Mexico this week as a low pressure system churns 
over the NW US coast. The low will draw a gradually richer flow of 
moisture northward into NM underneath the ridge with daily rounds of 
showers and thunderstorms along and east of the continental divide 
starting Wednesday. Gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms are 
expected west of the central mountain chain on Wednesday. Moisture 
will continue to increase Thursday and Friday, causing wetting foot 
prints to increase across central and eastern areas, but there will 
probably still be some drier storms in the mix along the western 
periphery of the moisture (the continental divide region). 

The ridge weakens some over NM this weekend as models shift the main 
center of high pressure northeast of the state; however, a 
persistent upper level trough on the west coast keeps a monsoon-like 
plume of moisture squarely over New Mexico through the weekend and 
into early next week.